Study of TSLA and TSLL (Part V)

Posted on May 17, 2026 by Timeless Investor

Study of TSLA and TSLL (Part V)

Ron Baron on CNBC:

1. Starlink will be worth up to $14T

2. SpaceX will be worth $10T – $30T or more

3. $1B IPO order

4. Would NOT bet on SpaceX-Tesla merger

5. Terafab saves big margins, 50X chips needed

6. Never bet against a guy with superpowers who will never give up

Solid quarter, but bad presentation, lots of uncertainties in fsd and optimus

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Founder Story: Michael Truell of Cursor AI | Frederick AI

  1. SpaceX to use dual-class shares, limiting public investor influence
  2. Starlink operating income surged, offsetting xAI’s widening losses
  3. SpaceX ended 2025 with $24.8B cash, $92B assets, $50.8B liabilities

NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) – SpaceX plans to cement founder Elon Musk’s control after its IPO, granting ​him and a small group of insiders super-voting shares that will outweigh other investors, according to excerpts of the company’s IPO ‌filing reviewed by Reuters.

The prospectus, which was confidentially filed this month, provides fresh details of the company’s financials and corporate governance

Upon completion of the offering, Musk will stay on as chief executive officer, chief technical officer, and will serve as chairman of SpaceX’s nine-member board of directors.

Though Musk was paid $54,080 last year, according to the excerpts, he stands to gain ​billions in equity after the company’s stock market debut.

SpaceX is targeting a listing valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion with a $75 billion raise, which would ​make it the largest initial public offering in history. Musk bought $1.4 billion in the company’s stock last year and ⁠stands to get another 60 million in shares if SpaceX’s market value reaches $6.6 trillion and he is able to build data centers in space under ​a stock plan approved last month, the Information reported.

President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell received $85.8 million in total compensation last year, Reuters previously reported, while Chief ​Financial Officer Bret Johnsen was paid $9.8 million.

Exclusive: SpaceX to woo Wall Street with three-day analyst meet this week, sources say | Reuters

  1. SpaceX hosts analyst days at Starbase and data center
  2. Executives aim for late June IPO debut, targeting $1.75 trillion valuation
  3. Musk plans 30% share allocation for retail investors, including international participation

Here’s a clear summary of the recent YouTube video “Tesla Stock to $550 NEAR TERM Because ……! Larry Goldberg” (published April 17, 2026, by Randy Kirk, featuring Tesla bull Larry Goldberg @TeslaLarry).

Main Thesis

Larry Goldberg argues that Tesla (TSLA) can reach ~$550 in the near term (roughly the next 60 days or so from mid-April 2026), driven primarily by one major upcoming catalyst: the anticipated SpaceX IPO and the potential synergies/merger implications between SpaceX and Tesla.

As of mid-April 2026, Tesla stock is trading in the $350–$400 range (recent closes around $390–$410), so $550 would represent a ~35–50% upside in a short timeframe.

The Key “Because” – The Big Catalyst

Goldberg highlights that while there are many Tesla catalysts (FSD/robotaxi progress, Optimus, energy growth, vehicle deliveries, etc.), the SpaceX IPO is the standout near-term driver:

  1. SpaceX is expected to IPO soon (speculation around mid-2026 timeline in related discussions).
  2. A successful SpaceX IPO would likely value it at $1.5T–$2T+, creating massive market attention and liquidity.
  3. This would indirectly boost Tesla through perceived synergies (Starlink integration with autonomy/robotaxi, shared Elon Musk ecosystem, robotics/AI overlap, and overall “Elon premium”).
  4. Goldberg frames a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger/acquisition scenario (or at least market pricing in such possibilities) as highly value-accretive for Tesla shareholders in the short run, with Tesla potentially trading up to $550–$600 in anticipation.

He notes Tesla doesn’t even need a major new company-specific catalyst to run hard — a rising broader market + the SpaceX event could push it back toward all-time highs (~$490+ pre-split adjusted) and beyond to $550+ quickly.

Supporting Points from Goldberg

  1. Tesla is currently “coiled like a spring” and undervalued relative to its AI/robotics/autonomy potential.
  2. Forward multiples remain attractive compared to the broader market.
  3. Long-term optimism: He sees Tesla easily scaling much higher ($700–$900+ by end of 2026 or into 2027) if autonomy and robotics deliver, but the near-term pop is tied to the SpaceX momentum.
  4. Historical context: Goldberg is a long-time Tesla believer who invested very early (around $3 pre-splits) and emphasizes patience + first-principles thinking.

Context and Caveats

  1. This is bullish commentary from a well-known Tesla advocate (not neutral Wall Street research).
  2. Other recent videos in the same circle (Randy Kirk, etc.) mention similar near-term targets like $500 by end of May or $600+ on positive autonomy news.
  3. Risks mentioned implicitly: Market volatility, execution on Tesla’s side, regulatory hurdles for any merger ideas, and dilution concerns in merger models.
  4. No guarantees — stock predictions like this are speculative.

The video is enthusiastic and focuses heavily on the SpaceX IPO as the “big one” that could ignite the next leg up for TSLA in the coming weeks/months.

If you want a deeper breakdown (e.g., specific timestamps, merger math details, or counterarguments from bears), let me know — or share what aspect interests you most (valuation, risks, etc.). Note that this is not financial advice; always do your own research.

Here’s a clear summary of Larry Goldberg‘s (aka TeslaLarry) main takes on SpaceX’s potential, based on his recent interviews (especially the April 17, 2026 Randy Kirk video), X posts, and other discussions in 2025–2026.

1. Near-Term Valuation & IPO (Mid-2026)

  • SpaceX is heading for an IPO around June 2026 (his best guess: June 9 or late June).
  • He views a $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion post-IPO valuation as realistic (sometimes mentions $1.625T with a typical 30% IPO premium uplift from a ~$1.25T private valuation post-xAI merger).
  • He considers anything above $2 trillion as hype or “BS” (aligning with Elon Musk’s public dismissal of extreme rumors).
  • This would make it one of the largest IPOs in history, potentially raising $50–75 billion in fresh capital.
  • He expects strong demand, fast index inclusion (Nasdaq-100 / S&P 500), and massive passive buying inflows ($15–25B+ in the early weeks).

2. Business & Growth Drivers

  • Current revenue run-rate (launch + Starlink) is already ~$25 billion.
  • Starlink V3 satellites will drive significant expansion.
  • Long-term upside includes space-based data centers (AI/datacenters in orbit), but he notes this may not meaningfully contribute to the bottom line for another 4–5 years.
  • Everything ultimately depends on Starship success — full reusability and high flight cadence will unlock the real scale.
  • He sees SpaceX becoming 10x bigger than NVIDIA in potential impact over time, with explosive growth in the new space economy.

3. Tesla–SpaceX Synergies & Merger Path

This is the biggest recurring theme in Larry’s commentary:

  • A full merger (or major integration) between SpaceX and Tesla is highly likely and beneficial for both sets of shareholders.
  • Timeline he often discusses: SpaceX IPO first (mid-2026) → possible stock-for-stock merger later in 2026 or by end of 2027.
  • Reasons: Product groups are highly complementary (Starlink for robotaxi connectivity, shared AI/robotics, capital efficiency, faster innovation cycles). Separate companies slow things down with cross-boundary coordination.
  • In a merger scenario, he has modeled examples where Tesla could trade up to $550–600 near-term purely on anticipation, with the combined entity potentially reaching $3.5T–$4.5T+ market cap initially (and far higher long-term).
  • He argues the merger creates engineered abundance rather than just financial engineering — synergies could save billions annually and accelerate both companies dramatically.

4. Overall Long-Term Potential

  • Extremely bullish: SpaceX (and a combined Musk ecosystem) has multi-trillion-dollar (even $10T–$100T in extreme bull cases discussed in interviews) potential due to the space economy, global connectivity, AI infrastructure, and beyond.
  • He emphasizes thinking in terms of future execution potential, not current cash flows or traditional valuation metrics (e.g., comparing to early Facebook IPO multiples).
  • For Tesla investors specifically: The SpaceX IPO itself is the biggest near-term catalyst that could drive TSLA sharply higher (his $550 target in the video is largely tied to this event).

Tone & Context

Larry is a long-time Elon enthusiast and investor in multiple Musk companies (including SpaceX via SPVs). His views are very optimistic and focus on first-principles convergence of the “Muskonomy” (Tesla + SpaceX + xAI, etc.). He stresses governance alignment, regulatory hurdles, and sequencing (IPO before full merger) as practical realities.

These are bullish opinions from a vocal Tesla/SpaceX advocate — not official forecasts or financial advice. Valuations and merger ideas remain speculative and depend on execution, regulation, and market conditions.

If you want me to pull specific quotes, dive deeper into the merger math he’s modeled, compare with bearish counter-views, or check his latest X posts for updates, just let me know!

  • TeslaBoomerMama advocates for a true 50/50 stock-for-stock merger of equals between Tesla and SpaceX, arguing it would deliver an implicit premium to Tesla shareholders via exchange ratio even if SpaceX holds a higher valuation post-IPO.
  • She predicts announcement weeks after SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, with full integration by summer 2027, causing the two stocks to move in tandem based on perceived deal probability.
  • The accompanying image illustrates balanced synergy with Tesla’s Cybertruck and Optimus robots weighed equally against SpaceX’s Starship and satellites, reflecting community debates on AI, robotics, and multiplanetary ambitions.

Explore merger valuation mechanics

Discuss xAI integration potential
Explore merger valuation mechanics
Merger valuation mechanics for a proposed 50/50 stock-for-stock “merger of equals” (MoE) between Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX boil down to setting an exchange ratio that delivers exactly 50% post-merger ownership to each company’s shareholders in the new combined entity (NewCo), regardless of their pre-merger market valuations. This differs from a standard arm’s-length deal, where ownership would be strictly proportional to relative values.Core Concepts
  • Stock-for-stock merger: SpaceX shareholders receive newly issued Tesla (or NewCo) shares in exchange for their SpaceX shares. No cash changes hands.
  • Merger of equals (50/50): The deal is structured so each side owns exactly 50% of NewCo on a fully diluted basis. This is a negotiated ownership split, not dictated purely by market caps.
  • Pre-merger valuations (as of mid-April 2026, per latest market data):
    • Tesla: ≈ $1.50T market cap, ~3.75B shares outstanding → ~$400/share.
    • SpaceX (post-IPO assumption per the tweet): Recent pre-IPO marks $1.25T–$1.45T; IPO targets $1.5T–$2T+ (rumors cluster around $1.75T–$2T).

How the Exchange Ratio Is Set for True 50/50 OwnershipLet:

  • VTV_TV_T

    : Tesla pre-merger market cap

  • VSV_SV_S

    : SpaceX post-IPO market cap

  • NTN_TN_T

    : Tesla shares outstanding

  • NSN_SN_S

    : SpaceX shares outstanding (fully diluted, post-IPO)

To force exactly 50% ownership for Tesla shareholders in NewCo:

  • Tesla shareholders keep their
    NTN_TN_T

    shares → must equal 50% of total NewCo shares.

  • New shares issued to SpaceX shareholders =
    NTN_TN_T

    .

  • Exchange ratio ( R ) (Tesla shares per SpaceX share) =
    NTNS\frac{N_T}{N_S}\frac{N_T}{N_S}

    .

This ( R ) is fixed in the merger agreement. It is not adjusted to reflect fair-market relative values; it is adjusted only to hit the 50/50 ownership target. Markets will react to the announcement based on whether investors view the ratio as accretive or dilutive.Implicit Premium (or Discount) to Tesla ShareholdersBecause ownership is fixed at 50%, any valuation imbalance creates an implicit premium (or discount) relative to a “fair value” deal.The fair-value ownership Tesla shareholders would receive if the deal were strictly proportional:

Fair Tesla ownership=VTVT+VS\text{Fair Tesla ownership} = \frac{V_T}{V_T + V_S}\text{Fair Tesla ownership} = \frac{V_T}{V_T + V_S}

The implicit premium to Tesla when forcing 50/50:

Premium (%)=0.5×(VS−VT)VT=0.5(VSVT−1)\text{Premium (\%)} = \frac{0.5 \times (V_S – V_T)}{V_T} = 0.5 \left( \frac{V_S}{V_T} – 1 \right)\text{Premium (\%)} = \frac{0.5 \times (V_S - V_T)}{V_T} = 0.5 \left( \frac{V_S}{V_T} - 1 \right)

Numerical examples (using Tesla

VT=$1.50V_T = \$1.50V_T = \$1.50

T):

SpaceX post-IPO

VSV_SV_S
Combined NewCo value
Tesla shareholders’ post-merger value (50%)
Implicit premium to Tesla
Fair-value Tesla ownership (no premium)
$1.25T (SpaceX lower)
$2.75T
$1.375T
–8.3% (discount)
54.5%
$1.50T (equal)
$3.00T
$1.50T
0%
50.0%
$1.75T (tweet scenario)
$3.25T
$1.625T
+8.3%
46.2%
$2.00T (high-end rumor)
$3.50T
$1.75T
+16.7%
42.9%
  • If SpaceX trades at a higher valuation post-IPO (most analysts’ base case), Tesla shareholders receive an implicit premium because they get more ownership % than their contributed value would otherwise justify.
  • Conversely, if SpaceX IPOs lower, Tesla holders take a discount.
  • The premium is “implicit” because it’s baked into the exchange ratio, not paid as an explicit control premium.

Additional Valuation & Structural Mechanics

  1. Synergies not in base math: The above assumes no value creation. Tesla + SpaceX synergies (Optimus + Starship, AI/robotics + satellite networks, multiplanetary scaling, shared talent/Elon ownership) could add 20–50%+ to NewCo value, making the deal accretive to both sides regardless of the premium.
  2. Exchange ratio protections:
    • Fixed ratio (most common in MoE): Ratio locked at announcement.
    • Collars: If one stock moves >10–15% pre-close, ratio adjusts within bands to protect value.
    • Walk rights / termination fees: If valuations diverge dramatically, either side can walk.
  3. Post-announcement trading: As the tweet notes, both stocks (and NewCo if formed) will trade in tandem based on changing deal probability, not just fundamentals.
  4. Governance nuance: Elon Musk’s large stakes in both companies (≈13% Tesla, ~42% SpaceX) would likely result in continued control of NewCo, subject to shareholder votes and regulatory approval (HSR, CFIUS, etc.).
  5. Timeline & catalysts: Per the tweet, announcement likely weeks after SpaceX IPO; full integration targeted for summer 2027. Markets begin pricing probability immediately upon SpaceX IPO.

In short, a true 50/50 MoE is a negotiated ownership deal that deliberately overrides pure relative-value math to create balance and alignment. The valuation mechanics are straightforward once you fix the ownership %—the premium/discount emerges automatically from any valuation gap. This structure has been used in other high-profile tech MoEs (e.g., historical Dow-DuPont) when boards want strategic parity over strict fairness.

  • 04/15/2026 – worth reading in more details

(21) AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 on X: “SpaceX IPO & Tesla Deal: Massive Index Buying Ahead?” / X

(21) InvestAnswers on X: “@TeslaBoomerMama @valiryon @kellyglawson @gusiggins @XanderSky Your LEAP doesn’t disappear in a merger—it just adjusts: Same call/put Same expiry Same strike (or tweaked to match value) Only change: contract size. If 1 share → 0.7 new shares, your 100-share contract becomes 70. Or 1 share becomes 1.3 shares etc. Ticker just gets a small” / X

another great article

(21) Timbo on X: “SpaceX Index Inclusion: The Forced Buying Machine” / X

(21) Zack on X: “600 miles in with FSD v14.3 already and here are my thoughts: The improved reaction time is immediately noticeable and definitely quicker than a human could react. Yesterday a semi truck swerved fast into my lane and the car reacted insanely quickly to get me around them. Tesla https://t.co/2VeFgdGcy6” / X

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(21) 谢嘉琪 on X: “我觉得FSD14.3的进步完全在被大部分市场低估。 特斯拉在同时训练不同参数大小的模型，就跟XAI同时训练7个Grok模型一样。只是14.3的强化学习进步太快，10倍参数模型跟不上。 🚨14.3不是简单的增量优化，而是从底层基于MLIR框架彻底重构，充分释放硬件4性能。FSD14 Lite在硬件3的推出可能也依赖于此！ https://t.co/0rz9Cy4uck” / X

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Musk’s vision for Tesla rests on the fully driverless Cybercab, but regulations could stand in the way

(8) Joseph 💎✌️🪑🇺🇸 Tesla Long Term Investor on X: “@elonmusk I absolutely love this initiative. I’ve been saying one can’t overcome Mars until one overcomes the Moon first. It’s a necessary step. If anyone can achieve this milestone, it’s going to be SpaceX and Elon. Thank you for fighting to extend consciousness beyond Earth. 🫡” / X

(8) 谢嘉琪 on X: “特斯拉如何参与马斯克月球城市计划？” / X

(8) Dwarkesh Patel on X: “.@collision and I interviewed @elonmusk. 0:00:00 – Orbital data centers 0:36:46 – Grok and alignment 0:59:56 – xAI’s business plan 1:17:21 – Optimus and humanoid manufacturing 1:30:22 – Does China win by default? 1:44:16 – Lessons from running SpaceX 2:20:08 – DOGE 2:38:28 – https://t.co/543uQjv6ZT” / X

Elon Musk – “In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space” – YouTube

Imagine three companies at pivotal moments:
  • SpaceX nearing major Starship milestones.
  • xAI advancing Grok and massive AI compute needs.
  • Tesla pushing FSD, Optimus, and energy solutions.
Their unique strengths—reusable rockets and global satellite networks, cutting-edge AI, autonomous driving/robotics—converge to tackle huge real-world challenges like abundant sustainable energy, space exploration, and AI infrastructure.

Why Tesla might become an 100 Trillion Dollar Company:

A reflection on the 3-hour Cheeky Pint Podcast  with John Collison and Dwarkesh Patel

(8) The All-In Podcast on X: “Brad Gerstner: Elon Just Merged the Two Biggest Markets in the World @altcap: “You’re merging the two biggest TAMs in the world, right?” “All of artificial intelligence and all of space, together with the world’s greatest entrepreneur.” “(Elon) said, ‘I’m going to have https://t.co/92emepio2n” / X

(5) BREAKING: Elon Musk Announces SpaceX and xAI MERGER! / X

SpaceX – Updates

SpaceX has acquired xAI to form the most ambitious, vertically-integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth, with AI, rockets, space-based internet, direct-to-mobile device communications and the world’s foremost real-time information and free speech platform. This marks not just the next chapter, but the next book in SpaceX and xAI’s mission: scaling to make a sentient sun to understand the Universe and extend the light of consciousness to the stars!

The capabilities we unlock by making space-based data centers a reality will fund and enable self-growing bases on the Moon, an entire civilization on Mars and ultimately expansion to the Universe.

Thank you for everything you have done and will do for the light cone of consciousness.

Ad Astra!
Elon

(5) phil beisel on X: “Tesla and SpaceX are going to collide!” / X

(5) phil beisel on X: “The Magic of Optimus (part 1)” / X

SPACEX–XAI MERGER COULD BE ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK SpaceX is in advanced talks to merge with xAI as Elon Musk moves to consolidate his companies, Bloomberg reported. Some investors have already been informed. An announcement could come as soon as this week, though talks could still collapse. The move comes as SpaceX reportedly prepares for a possible IPO later this year and has also explored ties with Tesla.

(5) AJ on X: “Re Tesla merger: The most important numbers bankers and lawyers are working out right now is the exchange ratio proposed for a Tesla and SpaceX/xAI merger. This ratio drives significantly how much value ends up with existing Tesla shareholders. The exchange ratio determines” / X

Re Tesla merger: The most important numbers bankers and lawyers are working out right now is the exchange ratio proposed for a Tesla and SpaceX/xAI merger. This ratio drives significantly how much value ends up with existing Tesla shareholders. The exchange ratio determines how many Tesla shares will be issued to SpaceX/xAI shareholders in exchange for their SpaceX/xAI shares.

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(5) Sawyer Merritt on X: “Dan Ives in new $TSLA note: “In our view there is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time. The view is this growing AI ecosystem will focus on Space and Earth together…..and Musk will look to combine forces/technologies over” / X

Dan Ives in new $TSLA note: “In our view there is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time. The view is this growing AI ecosystem will focus on Space and Earth together…..and Musk will look to combine forces/technologies over time. Tesla now is laser focused on autonomous and robotics in this key era for Musk & Co. and we expect more cross-pollination between Tesla and SpaceX over the coming year which is bullish for the Tesla story in our view. Musk wants to own and control more of the AI ecosystem and step by step the holy grail could be combining SpaceX and Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months in some form to give the connected tissue between both disruptive tech stalwarts looking to lead the AI Revolution.”

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(5) Anthony Pompliano 🌪 on X: “I just personally purchased $1 million of Tesla stock. Here are the four reasons why: 1. Never bet against @elonmusk – he is the greatest entrepreneur of our generation. 2. Self-driving will be the standard – $TSLA has the data advantage and the best technology. 3. Robotics” / X

(5) FSD Johnny Mac on X: “@TheSonOfWalkley – Tesla’s prepared testimony for the February 4, 2026, Senate Commerce Committee hearing emphasizes federal updates to self-driving rules, including higher NHTSA exemptions for autonomous vehicles, to enable faster robotaxi rollout. – Recent bills under discussion would raise” / X

(5) *Walter Bloomberg on X: “$TSLA – TESLA TO TELL SENATE COMMERCE COMMITTEE WEDNESDAY THAT CONGRESS MUST MODERNIZE SELF-DRIVING CAR REGULATIONS, WARNING IF U.S. DOES NOT LEAD IN ROBOTAXI DEVELOPMENT “CHINA WILL BE THE DOMINANT MANUFACTURER OF TRANSPORTATION FOR THE 21ST CENTURY” — WRITTEN TESTIMONY” / X

If we want this hypothetical mega-merger to happen, we would need to get 50% +1 of all outstanding shares to vote “yes”, meaning 1,876,215,993 “yes” votes.

413 million of these will come from Elon. Another 211.8+ million could come from the corporate secretary’s allocation if the overall trend is positive.

Let’s get busy to find the 1.25 bn other shares. Retail shareholders hold an important key to this success.

To understand the consequences, let’s distinguish the three awards: the 2018 award, the 2025 interim award and the 2025 performance award.

In summary:

  1. The 96m restricted stock award in the 2025 CEO interim award is most probably already forfeited

  2. We are back to the original structure of the 2018 award, with stock options granting 304 million shares which need to be exercised at the latest on Jan 20, 2028, and any merger has no impact on this

  3. The 2025 CEO Performance award for 423.7 million shares in 12 equal tranches pairs market cap milestones (up to $8.5T) with operational milestones, including EBITDA targets (up to $400B). A merger triggers change-in-control provisions, earned milestones vest faster, operational milestones may disappear, and market cap is recalculated fairly.

(3) Beanie👾 on X: “Elon Musk: The lowest cost place to put AI data centers will be space —- “The lowest cost place to put AI will be space. I think the case is a no-brainer for building AI, solar-powered AI data centers in space because, as you mentioned, it’s also very cold in space. If you’re https://t.co/CvBDj1kRXJ” / X

Financial Highlights

Tesla reported total revenues of $24.9 billion in Q4 2025, a 3% decline year-over-year, primarily due to lower vehicle deliveries and regulatory credits, partially offset by 27% growth in energy storage revenue to $3.8 billion and 19% growth in services to $12.5 billion annually. Automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, improved sequentially to 17.9% from 15.4%, driven by positive regional mix effects despite a 16% drop in deliveries. Overall gross margin reached 20.1%, the highest in over two years. GAAP operating income was $1.4 billion, down 11% YoY, with operating expenses rising 39% YoY to $3.6 billion, influenced by AI/R&D and stock-based compensation. GAAP net income stood at $0.8 billion, impacted by Bitcoin depreciation and FX effects, while non-GAAP net income was $1.8 billion. Free cash flow was $1.4 billion, with cash and investments increasing to $44.1 billion. For the full year, revenues were $94.8 billion (down 3% YoY), with GAAP net income of $3.8 billion and free cash flow of $6.2 billion.

Metric Q4 2025 FY 2025 YoY Change (Q4/FY)
Total Revenue $24.9B $94.8B -3% / -3%
GAAP Net Income $0.8B $3.8B N/A / N/A
Free Cash Flow $1.4B $6.2B -30% / +74%
Automotive Gross Margin (ex-credits) 17.9% 15.4% +250 bps (sequential) / N/A
Energy Storage Revenue $3.8B $12.8B +25% / +27%

Operational Updates

Vehicle production totaled 434,000 units in Q4 (down 5% YoY), with deliveries at 418,000 (down 16% YoY), leading to a year-end inventory of 15 days of supply. Model 3/Y accounted for the majority, while Model S/X production is set to wind down next quarter to repurpose Fremont capacity for Optimus robot production, targeting 1 million units annually. Record deliveries were achieved in APAC and smaller markets like Malaysia and Norway, with a stronger global backlog. Energy storage deployments hit a record 14.2 GWh in Q4 (up 29% YoY) and 46.7 GWh for the year (up 49% YoY), driven by MegaPack and Powerwall demand. Services margins dipped to 8.8% due to higher employee costs for service center expansion. Supercharger network grew to 8,182 stations with 77,682 connectors. Battery supply remains a key global constraint, addressed through innovations like 4680 cells and nonstructural packs.

AI and Autonomy Progress

Tesla emphasized its shift to a “physical AI company,” with FSD (Supervised) v14 showing significant improvements via end-to-end models trained on fleet data equivalent to over 500 years per day. Active FSD subscriptions reached 1.1 million (up 38% YoY), transitioning fully to a monthly model, which may pressure short-term automotive margins. Robotaxi service launched unsupervised paid rides in Austin without safety monitors, with over 500 vehicles in the fleet (doubling monthly) and plans to expand to major U.S. cities in H1 2026. Cybercab production starts in April 2026, designed for full autonomy without steering wheels or pedals, optimized for high utilization (50-60 hours/week) and expected to become Tesla’s highest-volume vehicle. AI investments include the AI5 chip (50x performance boost, production in 2027) and Cortex clusters, with potential xAI collaboration and a $2 billion investment in xAI. Optimus Gen 3 unveiling is imminent, focusing on learning from observation, with challenges in hand dexterity and scaling.

Energy Business

Energy revenue grew 25% YoY to $3.8 billion in Q4, with record gross profit of $1.1 billion from high deployments across regions. Powerwall networks delivered over 89,000 virtual power plant events, saving customers over $1 billion. Outlook includes strong backlog growth with new products like MegaPack 3 and Megablock, though margins may compress due to competition, policy uncertainty, and tariffs. Solar opportunities were highlighted, targeting 100 GW/year production capacity. The lithium refinery in Corpus Christi achieved pilot production of hydroxide from spodumene.

Key Q&A Points

  1. Autonomy and Vehicles: Cybercab expected to serve 90% of miles (1-2 occupants) and dominate volumes; no new traditional models beyond autonomy-focused ones; next-gen Roadster debuts in April.
  2. Bottlenecks: Software enabling unsupervised operations; battery and chip supply addressed via vertical integration; no memory constraints for 3 years.
  3. Optimus: Leads in hand design and real-world AI; China as main competitor; early R&D with volume production by 2026.
  4. Financials: CapEx over $20 billion in 2026 for six factories, AI, and fleet; funded by cash reserves; no layoffs, with headcount growth.
  5. Other: Push for xAI investment; Bitcoin/FX impacts noted; synergies in batteries and efficiency.

Future Guidance and Outlook

Tesla anticipates massive CapEx exceeding $20 billion in 2026 for factories (including Cybercab, Semi, Megapack 3, Optimus), AI infrastructure, and fleet expansion, while optimizing existing capacity. Focus on autonomy ramp-up, with unsupervised vehicles in 25-50% of the U.S. by year-end, pending regulations. Energy growth continues amid demand for clean capacity, with hardware profits accelerating via AI/software/fleet monetization. Long-term vision includes an “amazing abundance” future through AI and robotics, solving hard problems like universal high income, safety, and environmental sustainability, with potential TerraFab for chip supply security. Deliveries may fluctuate based on demand, supply chains, and fleet allocation, but the balance sheet remains strong for roadmap execution.

(2) Bloomberg on X: “SpaceX is considering a potential merger with Tesla, as well as an alternative combination with AI firm xAI, according to sources, a sign billionaire Elon Musk is weighing how to consolidate his empire https://t.co/32pWJrTqQD” / X

(2) Grok Conversation / X

  1. Grok’s reply neutrally summarizes Bloomberg and Reuters reports on SpaceX’s early-stage merger explorations with Tesla or xAI, driven by anonymous sources citing synergies in AI computing, space energy, and robotics transport.
  2. A SpaceX-xAI deal could involve share swaps ahead of SpaceX’s targeted June IPO at $1.5 trillion valuation, while Tesla integration might leverage its energy storage for orbital data centers; Nevada entities formed January 21 hint at preparations.
  3. No confirmations or denials from Elon Musk, SpaceX, Tesla, or xAI as of late January 29, 2026, with Musk’s recent posts emphasizing xAI advancements and Tesla’s Model S/X phase-out instead.

(2) CyberCat on X: “🔥X holding Company Space X 和 X 合并是意料之外情理之中的事。老股东可能会记得2020年Dave Lee 建议老马搞个X holding 公司合并老马的所有公司，致力于保证人类文明的延续和发展。当时老马就回复了Good Idea，所以如果未来特斯拉也合并进入X请大家也不要意外。 https://t.co/HGXRIlB089” / X

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(2) 谢嘉琪 on X: “马斯克企业帝国合并的可能性：特斯拉，SpaceX与xAI” / X

马斯克领导的多家企业，包括SpaceX、xAI和特斯拉在太空探索、人工智能和电动汽车领域取得了显著进展。近期报道显示，SpaceX与xAI正处于合并谈判阶段，此举可能为后续的反向并购铺平道路，其中特斯拉作为存续实体。 该整合若实现，将形成一个涵盖火箭技术、卫星通信、社交媒体和人工智能的超级实体。
背景
2026年1月29日，多家权威媒体如路透社和彭博社报道，马斯克的SpaceX正与xAI讨论合并事宜，此谈判发生在SpaceX计划于今年晚些时候进行首次公开IPO之前。同时，报道提及SpaceX亦在评估与特斯拉的合并选项。
SpaceX作为全球领先的航天企业，其估值已接近8000亿美元，并计划通过IPO达到1.5万亿美元规模。 xAI则专注于人工智能开发，其Grok聊天机器人已与马斯克的社交平台X深度整合。近期，特斯拉宣布投资20亿美元于xAI优先股，而SpaceX亦据报道投资20亿美元于该公司。 这些投资行为表明，马斯克的企业间已存在紧密的财务和战略联系。
合并谈判的核心在于xAI股东以股票交换方式融入SpaceX，从而将Starlink卫星、X平台和Grok AI整合为单一实体。 此举符合马斯克在2025年达沃斯世界经济论坛上提出的观点，即太空可能成为未来人工智能计算的最低成本场所。
进一步而言，反向并购机制——即私有实体（合并后的SpaceX+xAI）通过与上市公司特斯拉交换股票实现上市——已成为讨论焦点。此机制历史上曾被科技企业用于规避传统IPO的复杂性。
从历史视角看，马斯克的企业整合并非首次。早在2016年，SolarCity与Tesla合并；2024年，X与xAI实现部分整合。 马斯克本人于2025年表示，Tesla与xAI合并“并非不可能，但需股东批准”。 其传记作者早在2025年即预测Tesla与xAI的潜在合并，缘于共享的人工智能愿景，如Grok在Tesla车辆中的集成。
可行性
随着SpaceX和xAI估值急剧膨胀——前者受益于Starship项目，后者得益于AI热潮——反向并购的数学模型已趋于可行。早期估值不足导致此类操作不切实际，但当前合并实体规模庞大，可通过股票交换注入特斯拉，提升其市值。 此过程可避免SpaceX IPO对特斯拉资金分流的影响。
在机制上，反向并购允许私有公司快速上市，特斯拉作为存续实体可保留其股票代码（TSLA），从而将所有马斯克相关投资集中于一处。 此整合将形成所谓马斯克生态系统，类似于历史上的企业帝国如Standard Oil。
潜在益处
可集中管理资源，避免多公司分散精力。并减少季度报告压力，便于融资喝长期发展万亿美元级项目，如火星殖民和AI卫星。
对特斯拉股东，该并购注入高增长资产，可能显著提升股价，并兑现马斯克对股东的承诺。 对SpaceX和xAI投资者，通过上市获得更高流动性，尽管需协商公平换股比例。 整体而言，此举在AI和太空竞赛中提供竞争优势，例如利用太空数据中心降低计算成本。
合并挑战
首先，投资者配合至关重要。SpaceX和xAI的股东（如风险投资基金）需同意换股条款，否则可能引发诉讼。 其次，监管障碍显著。此类巨型并购涉及太空、汽车、AI和社会媒体领域，或引发美国证券交易委员会（SEC）和联邦贸易委员会（FTC）的反垄断审查。 最后，执行复杂度高，整合多领域资产需精密协调。当然，这世界只有一人能办成这事，马斯克。
结论
此合并不仅是财务优化，更是战略布局。马斯克的企业正向“太空AI一体化”演进，利用Starlink提供全球计算基础设施，支持Grok等AI应用。此举可使马斯克在与谷歌、Meta和OpenAI的竞争中占据先机，尤其在计算资源短缺的时代。 若成功，此并购将成为史上规模最大、影响最深远的交易，标志着个人企业家帝国的巅峰。

Robotaxi rides without any safety monitors are now publicly available in Austin. Starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors, and the ratio will increase over time.

(8) signüll on X: “the grok + tesla integration is actually super elegant. it’s the cleanest preview right now of how humans will move through the world with ai. i.e. llms for cognition + autonomy & self driving for locomotion. once thinking & motion collapse into one loop navigation sorta simply https://t.co/0sogAJWbGb” / X

Nvidia, Siemens to Build Industrial AI Operating System

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(1) Teslaconomics on X: “Hey @elonmusk – honest question here. Are we missing something? This looks like what Tesla has already been doing for years… except Tesla is training on massive real world data from actual customers and a live fleet, with a neural network that continuously learns to chase that” / X

(1) Teslaconomics on X: “Sorry, but Tesla FSD has been doing this for years… so what’s actually new here??? Nvidia just announced Alpamayo at CES 2026, “the world’s first thinking, reasoning, autonomous vehicle AI. https://t.co/KSIWQonpSN” / X

(1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: NVIDIA just announced Alpamayo, what CEO Jensen Huang calls the world’s first thinking, reasoning autonomous vehicle AI, launching on U.S. roads later this year, starting with the Mercedes CLA. Jensen: “It’s trained end-to-end. Literally from camera in to actuation out; It https://t.co/oqHPYLa0Xz” / X

NEWS: NVIDIA just announced Alpamayo, what CEO Jensen Huang calls the world’s first thinking, reasoning autonomous vehicle AI, launching on U.S. roads later this year, starting with the Mercedes CLA. Jensen: “It’s trained end-to-end. Literally from camera in to actuation out; It reasons what action it is about to take, the reason by which is came about that action, and the trajectory.” Alpamayo introduces Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, which enable self-driving systems to interpret what they see, reason about complex driving scenarios, and generate driving actions. The platform includes large reasoning models, simulation tools for testing rare and edge-case scenarios, and open datasets for training and validation. NVIDIA says the approach improves transparency, safety, and robustness in autonomous systems, particularly in complex real-world environments, and supports progress toward higher levels of vehicle autonomy: “With a 10-billion-parameter architecture, Alpamayo 1 uses video input to generate trajectories alongside reasoning traces, showing the logic behind each decision. Developers can adapt Alpamayo 1 into smaller runtime models for vehicle development, or use it as a foundation for AV development tools such as reasoning-based evaluators and auto-labeling systems. Alpamayo 1 provides open model weights and open-source inferencing scripts. Future models in the family will feature larger parameter counts, more detailed reasoning capabilities, more input and output flexibility, and options for commercial usage.”

(1) Raines on X: “I have to admit that I feel a bit worried when I saw Nvidia release Alpamayo. It is, in my opinion, the first real competitor to FSD. First of all, it does not rely on LiDAR, which is already impressive and better than all other losers out there. Then, the concept of VLA is my” / X

I have to admit that I feel a bit worried when I saw Nvidia release Alpamayo. It is, in my opinion, the first real competitor to FSD. First of all, it does not rely on LiDAR, which is already impressive and better than all other losers out there. Then, the concept of VLA is my exact understanding of what FSD 14.3 would be. And I believe Nvidia is doing really well at training general-purpose, small-sized VLMs. So, I don’t think it is very obvious who will train the better VLM for driving between Nvidia and Tesla. I’d guess Tesla, but you just can’t be so sure because it is not trivial to predict this part. Elon and Ashok surely both actively engaged with this news, and basically confirmed that Nvidia is doing exactly the same thing that Tesla is doing, with the only difference being how far they have gone along this technical path. I understand that going from 99% to 100% is hard, but first of all, Tesla isn’t at 100% yet, and second of all, the fact that Nvidia could reach near 99% without any fleet kind of proved that it is no longer critical to have large-scale fleet data for training and evaluation.

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@raines1220 I’m not losing any sleep about this. And I genuinely hope they succeed.” / X

(3) David Moss on X: “I am proud to announce that I have successfully completed the world’s first USA coast to coast fully autonomous drive! I left the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles 2 days & 20 hours ago, and now have ended in Myrtle Beach, SC (2,732.4 miles) This was accomplished with Tesla FSD V14.2 https://t.co/DFA8HiH5Yf” / X

(3) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: @DavidMoss has just set a new record by officially surpassing 10,000 consecutive miles on Tesla FSD (Supervised) V14 with no interventions. True 100% FSD usage. He’s currently on track today to be the first person to complete a coast-to-coast drive (LA → FL) entirely on https://t.co/54A978X3O7” / X

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(3) Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO pay package from Tesla, worth some $56 billion when it vested, must be restored, the Delaware Supreme Court has just ruled. TESLA AND ELON MUSK WON! 🥳 https://t.co/0xFA5K32oV” / X

(7) Elon Musk on X: “@cb_doge Testing is underway with no occupants in the car” / X

(7) Yun-Ta Tsai on X: “We have been working hard for this moment. Congratulations to the teams.” / X

(7) Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Tesla Model Y Robotaxi with literally no one in the car spotted driving itself on public roads in Austin, Texas! A new age has begun 🤖 https://t.co/BtqN7QfDe7” / X

I remember the day when Elon asked us all hands on deck to solve vision only just like yesterday. We began to work really hard on reasoning the world without those crutches — like humans. While it took several heroic efforts to get there, I do not think Full Self-Driving would be as good as today without his insistence.

  1. Unsupervised FSD – 3 weeks
  2. Larger model – Jan/Feb 2026
  3. AI5 – 2027 Volume production
  4. AI6 – 2028 (shortly after)

(1) Pejjy on X: “He’s going to do it. Elon’s recent comment on chips: “We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined” is the biggest signal of this. He also has mentioned before that $TSLA may not get the volume of chips that they need for Cybercabs & https://t.co/DYQkoqz9kv” / X

Most people don’t know that Tesla has had an advanced AI chip and board engineering team for many years. That team has already designed and deployed several million AI chips in our cars and data centers. These chips are what enable Tesla to be the leader in real-world AI. The current version in cars is AI4, we are close to taping out AI5 and are starting work on AI6. Our goal is to bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months. We expect to build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined. Read that sentence again, as I’m not kidding. These chips will profoundly change the world in positive ways, saving millions of lives due to safer driving and providing advanced medical care to all people via Optimus. Send an email with three bullet points describing evidence of your exceptional ability to AI_Chips@Tesla.com. We are particularly interested in applying cutting edge AI to chip design. Thanks, Elon

Here is Ron Baron’s full interview with @elonmusk at the annual Baron Investment Conference. They talk about Tesla, Optimus, Tesla’s AI5 chip, Neuralink, xAI, Grok 5, FSD, buying Twitter, AI, Tesla maybe building its own chip fab, their friendship and more. I’ve cut out the waiting period at the beginning of the stream.

  • 11/13/2025 – Tesla aims big for year 2026

Tesla AI boss tells staff 2026 will be the ‘hardest year’ of their lives in all-hands meeting

  1. Tesla AI chief Ashok Elluswamy warned his staff 2026 will be a difficult year in an all-hands.
  2. Tesla has aggressive timelines set for Optimus robot production and Robotaxi service expansion.
  3. Elon Musk’s pay package hinges on Robotaxi and Optimus success.
  • 11/13/2025 – Musk’s post on Karpathy

(1) Elon Musk on X: “Wait until he downloads V14” / X

  • 11/13/2025 – Karpathy is amazed by FSD 13, not even tried 14 yet!

(1) Andrej Karpathy on X: “I took delivery of a beautiful new shiny HW4 Tesla Model X today, so I immediately took it out for an FSD test drive, a bit like I used to do almost daily for 5 years. Basically… I’m amazed – it drives really, really well, smooth, confident, noticeably better than what I’m used” / X

(1) phil beisel on X: “The final boss in Musk’s 2025 Comp Plan is achieving $400B in EBITDA. Perspective: $238.24 billion: Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) achieved the highest annual EBITDA on record in 2022, driven by elevated global oil prices, higher sales volumes, and strong refining” / X

The final boss in Musk’s 2025 Comp Plan is achieving $400B in EBITDA.

Perspective:

$238.24 billion: Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) achieved the highest annual EBITDA on record in 2022, driven by elevated global oil prices, higher sales volumes, and strong refining margins amid geopolitical tensions and post-pandemic demand recovery. This figure surpasses other major companies like ExxonMobil ($102.59 billion in 2022) and NVIDIA ($34.48 billion in fiscal 2024). For context, Aramco’s 2023 EBITDA was approximately $236.81 billion, still leading but lower than 2022’s peak.

Let that sink in.

(1) phil beisel on X: “Mag 7 comparison 2024: https://t.co/WcAgB2GwRK” / X

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  • 11/07/2025 – great answers from Alexandra

(2) Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 on X: “Bloomberg interview from this morning. Looking understandable a bit tired, but like what was said. You? Thanks for having me, @EdLudlow and @CarolineHydeTV , tough questions today. https://t.co/Rr2ac38mOa” / X

Tesla Approves Musk Pay, Board to Review xAI Investment – YouTube

with FSD 14.3, people can text and sleep, and the car can drive itself to the destination!

(3) Elon Musk on X: “Time to pull a LOT of rabbits out of the hat” / X

Tesla Shareholders Approve Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package – WSJ

The Hurdles Elon Musk Must Clear to Unlock $1 Trillion in Tesla Pay – WSJ

  • 11/05/2025 – good win for Nasa and musk

(2) Elon Musk on X: “♥️🚀🇺🇸 https://t.co/3SVR8U7lrO” / X

Screenshot of a tweet from Donald J Trump with American flag emojis, text praising Sean Duffy as interim NASA administrator and nominating Jared Isaacman for his business, philanthropy, piloting, and astronaut experience to lead NASA into a new era of space exploration, congratulating Jared, his wife Monica, and children Mila and Liv, signed by President DJT, dated Nov 04 2025 at 4:42 PM UTC, with 1,656 likes and view count.

Textual job posting screenshot for Tesla Senior Insurance Claims Specialist Robotaxi role in Hayward California with requirement ID 255048 full-time position details on global risk management team overseeing corporate insurance programs across business components critical role in managing claims for Robotaxi and ride-hail operations as claims expert delivering customer service strong experience in claims handling supporting innovative transport initiatives.

A US investor depicted in the film The Big Short has placed a significant bet against artificial intelligence (AI).

Michael Burry, who bet on a US housing market crash in the run-up to the 2007 crisis, has wagered $1.1bn (£840m) on falls in shares of chip-maker Nvidia and software company Palantir.

On Monday, he posted a chart titled “US tech capex [capital expenditure] growth is matching the tech bubble of 1999-2000” and another showing how growth in demand for cloud computing at major tech companies is slowing.

Mr Burry’s investment firm Scion Asset Management has bought “put” contracts covering $912m of shares in software company Palantir and $187m of shares in chip-maker Nvidia, according to analysis of the fund’s portfolio update by investment research platform Quiver Quantitative.

(1) Quiver Quantitative on X: “BREAKING: Michael Burry just filed a portfolio update. He entered massive options positions betting against Nvidia and Palantir. He bought call options betting on Halliburton and Pfizer. Full portfolio up on Quiver. https://t.co/gImnU9dYYL” / X

Screenshot of Quiver Quantitative dashboard displaying Scion Asset Management LLC portfolio options holdings. Table lists stocks including PLTR with put type and 5000 holdings valued at 912100, NVDA put with 1000 holdings at 1858000, PFE call with 6000 at 1528000, HAL call with 2500 at 851500, and others like UUUU, JD, BABA with zero or low values. Columns show stock, type, holdings, value, change, and change value. Quiver Quantitative logo and join button visible at top.

Question: If the regulators in the US only allow for manufacturers to sell 2500 cars without steering wheel and pedals, doesn’t $TSLA NEED to put steering wheels and pedals so they can sell beyond the limit? I’m well aware that this limit will be increased but not entirely convinced it will be removed completely unless crazy amount of data convinces regulators otherwise (which there is a low chance of that). Speculating this and knowing that Elon said and confirmed that they are NOT putting a steering wheel and pedal in the Cybercab, how will they scale the Cybercab to millions?
  1. The post accurately highlights NHTSA’s exemption limiting sales of autonomous vehicles without steering wheels or pedals to 2,500 units annually, raising a practical challenge for scaling Tesla’s Cybercab to millions amid Elon’s confirmed no-controls design.
  2. Tesla can bypass this sales cap by producing and deploying Cybercabs in its own robotaxi fleet for operation rather than public sale, a strategy echoed in replies and aligning with higher profitability from fleet utilization over individual ownership.
  3. Recent NHTSA updates in June 2025 streamlined exemption reviews, and accumulating FSD safety data could prompt further regulatory expansions, though full removal of the limit remains uncertain without overwhelming evidence.

Sawyer Merritt on X: “A new 30-minute presentation from @aelluswamy, Tesla’s VP of AI, has been released, where he talks about FSD, AI and the team’s latest progress. Highlight from the presentation: • Tesla’s vehicle fleet can provide 500 years of driving data every single day. Curse of https://t.co/PAUAG01TQc” / X

the full video: Tesla ICCV 2025 Foundational Model for FSD

  • 10/22/2025 – TSLA’s 3Q2025 earning call

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

So that’s really the game changer. And we do see like — at this point, I feel essentially 100% confident — I’d say not essentially, 100% confident that we can solve unsupervised full self-driving at a safety level much greater than human. So we’ve released 14.1. – Elon Musk

(1) Tesla Yoda on X: “Signals from Tesla’s Q3 call: – Elon is 100% confident that Tesla will solve Unsupervised FSD. – Clarity on solving FSD is the signal for Tesla to expand production. – Cybercab volume production starts Q2 2026. – Safety monitor will be removed in Austin by end of year. – Safety” / X

  • 10/20/2025 – FSD 14.1.2 in NYC

(1) Ashok Elluswamy on X: “For those who are still skeptical of using cameras + neural nets to drive the car, this video is the antithesis.” / X

China produced around 97% of the world’s rare earths, giving it what was effectively a global monopoly.

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Tesla’s next chapter has the potential to create a world we’ve only begun to imagine. It also has the potential to create trillions of dollars in shareholder value. But we need your support to help make our vision a reality.
Ahead of our Annual Meeting on November 6, we are asking shareholders to vote “FOR” three proposals critical to the future of Tesla: Proposal 4 (approval of the 2025 CEO Performance Award), Proposal 3 (approval of the A&R 2019 Equity Incentive Plan) and Proposal 1 (election of our three Class III directors).

View our latest investor presentation to learn more →

https://www.votetesla.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Tesla-Shareholder-Presentation-10-6-25.pdf
  • 10/07/2025 – FSD V14 has come, more updates to come

(3) Elon Musk on X: “Many more Tesla self-driving V14 improvements still to come, but wide rollout of V14.1 has begun. 14.2 rolls out in a few weeks and then 14.3 a few weeks later, depending on safety testing. There is so much change that we are carefully confirming each one.” / X

(3) Ashok Elluswamy on X: “FSD 14.1, the first in the v14 series, has officially started rolling out to customers! Many follow up releases, with significant improvements, are in the works. These should ship through the rest of this year. Enjoy, and looking forward to your feedback! https://t.co/UJ4Y1YPLnA” / X

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(3) Alex Stypik on X: “@WholeMarsBlog Looks like we finally have FSD at 100% point to point , not just destination to destination. Parking lots were always hit and miss. Sometimes I did have FSD park at destination but mostly no. This is a game changer. Thanks for staying up all night for this.” / X

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1973110230189068508

  • 09/28/2025 – comments on FSD 14

(2) phil beisel on X: “FSD Version 14 Maybe this week we get version 14.0, as foretold by the profit [sic]. Key/expected features: 1. Version 14 10x larger model than 13, trained on more data and with many reinforcement learning (RL) use cases (see article). 2. Version 14 is multi-mode: it can https://t.co/d7AK5txr3y” / X

FSD Version 14 Maybe this week we get version 14.0, as foretold by the profit [sic]. Key/expected features: 1. Version 14 10x larger model than 13, trained on more data and with many reinforcement learning (RL) use cases (see article). 2. Version 14 is multi-mode: it can operate in supervised, unsupervised, and unsupervised Robotaxi modes, all software-controlled*. 3. Version 14.1 incorporates more fine-tuning based on an expanded range of RL use cases. Use cases likely fielded from Robotaxi experiences (Austin/Bay Area). 4. Version 14.2 expands RL use cases further. Elon’s comments on the ‘sentient’ feel of 14.2 likely come from his experience with a subset of defined cases in Version 14, and from that he can extrapolate how the full set of cases tuned in 14.2 delivers the broader ‘sentient’ experience. The tuning from 14 to 14.2 essentially completes those known areas to create a comprehensive ‘sentient-like’ reality. 5. Version 14 will only run on HW4 vehicles. 6. Version 14.2 will likely catalyze the removal of safety observers for Robotaxi. They may still be required/desired in new areas or for regulatory reasons (as is currently the case in the Bay Area). *The existence of unsupervised mode does not mean Tesla will enable it for FSD users. Multi-mode operation simply makes it possible; activation will be location-dependent and will be restricted in certain (many) areas. Dynamic mode switching will occur as the car moves between regions, with user-facing prompts to indicate these changes.

(2) phil beisel on X: “The Magic of Tesla FSD, part 7 (v14 edition)” / X

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@Jason Version 14.0 goes into early wide release next week, then 14.1 about 2 weeks later and finally 14.2. The car will feel almost like it is sentient being by 14.2.” / X

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  • 09/21/2025 – autonomous driving will be the biggest creation of wealth in human history

(5) Elon Musk on X: “@thecybersurg Not transfer of wealth, creation of wealth. The pie will get much larger. The opposite of a zero-sum game.” / X

(5) The Surfing CyberSurgeon©️ 🔪 🏄‍♂️🤙 ☮️ on X: “This week I will drop another $50,000 into Tesla. The majority of our population does not know what’s about to happen. As Elon said, this will be the biggest transfer of wealth in human history. Tesla will run autonomy.” / X

tm252289-12_def14a-gen.pdf

  • 09/16/2025 – Phil Beisel’s excellent articles on FSD and AI

Phil.Beisel.on.FSD.and.AI

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(1) Elon Musk on X: “@greggertruck Daddy is very much home. Am burning the midnight oil with Optimus engineering on Friday night, then redeye overnight to Austin arriving 5am, wake up to have lunch with my kids and then spend all Saturday afternoon in deep technical reviews for the Tesla AI5 chip design. Fly” / X

  • 09/15/2025 – Elon and Kimbal can vote on all Matters, including his comp package

(3) Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 on X: “🗳️ Elon and Kimbal can vote on all Matters Here the passage of the proxy (proxy page 88, pdf page 102) for the 2025 CEO Performance Award: https://t.co/muvvlqRbLV” / X

Elon and Kimbal can vote on all Matters Here the passage of the proxy (proxy page 88, pdf page 102) for the 2025 CEO Performance Award:

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(3) Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 on X: “@HopeUnblemished Couple more days, waiting for the definitive Proxy. Should come between today and next Monday.” / X

Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Elon Musk bought about $1 billion of Tesla stock last Friday, his first $TSLA purchase on the open market in over 5.5 years, according to a new SEC filing. $TSLA is up 8.2% to $428 in pre-market trading on the news. https://t.co/Vuz9jhQk8R” / X

Shares in Tesla TSLA 7.36%increase; green up pointing triangle jumped in premarket trading Monday after Elon Musk disclosed his first purchase of the stock in the open market since February 2020.

Tesla’s chief executive purchased more than 2.5 million shares in the company Friday, totalling around $1 billion, according to a regulatory filing released Monday.

(1) Herbert Ong on X: “🚨 BREAKING: Elon Musk bought over 2.56M $TSLA shares in a Form 4 filing, worth over $1B. 🚀 https://t.co/65liXMokUj” / X

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(2) Elon Musk on X: “TSLA up $69 to ~$420 as foretold in the prophecy https://t.co/6uZfOIMPyO” / X

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Tesla Chair on Elon Musk’s Pay, Succession Plans, and Politics

Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm breaks down Elon Musk’s proposed 2025 pay package, why retaining him matters, AI + autonomy goals, voting control, and even succession planning. Here’s her full interview:

00:00 Tesla’s Long-Term Goals

01:33 Musk’s Compensation

04:21 Elon & Politics 08:31 Voting & Leadership

12:33 Succession Planning

18:42 Safety & Wrap-Up

  • 09/10/2025 – Elon Musk at the All-In Summit

(1) The All-In Podcast on X: “🚨 Elon Musk at the All-In Summit — DOGE — Optimus — Starlink smartphones — “Grokipedia” — Evolving with AI — Why the West is Imploding — Understanding the universe — Colonizing Mars ++ much more (0:00) Introducing Elon Musk (2:47) Optimus: Progress and potential, the https://t.co/yOIL0GxKyw” / X

— DOGE — Optimus — Starlink smartphones — “Grokipedia” — Evolving with AI — Why the West is Imploding — Understanding the universe — Colonizing Mars ++ much more (0:00) Introducing Elon Musk (2:47) Optimus: Progress and potential, the “hands problem” (12:20) Tesla: AI5 chips, impact on FSD (16:50) SpaceX: Vision for Starlink-enabled smartphones, $17B spectrum deal, Starship update (26:16) xAI: Next-gen Grok models, Colossus 2, scaling laws, “Grokipedia” (31:29) Evolving alongside AI, implosion of the West, the religion vacuum (37:36) Understanding the universe, going to the Moon, what happens on Mars?

This is interesting… $TSLA made the first Elon’s comp package in 2012 and 12-18 months later the stock went up 500%. The second Elon’s comp package was in 2018 and 12-18 months later $TSLA stock started to ROAR until Nov 2021 (went up 2,000%). It looks like there is a correlation with Elon’s pay package and the stock price. When Elon and investors know what the goals and incentives are, there’s a big push in the company and in the stock price. Now the third Elon’s comp package just got released. The next 12-18 months are going to be really interesting… LFG!

Tesla just unveiled Megablock 20 MWh AC blocks, 25-year life, 91% efficiency, faster installs & lower costs. Built on Megapack 3 tech, scaling to 50 GWh/yr. Deliveries start 2026. The energy business is just getting started.

Musk confirmed this week that Tesla had just completed a design review for AI5.

Elon Musk is setting high expectations for Tesla’s in-house silicon program. As per Musk in a set of recent posts on X, Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 will be game-changing.

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 are incredibly important for Tesla’s future, which will likely be built on the back of very high-volume products like Optimus and the Cybercab.

Musk sets high expectations

Musk confirmed this week that Tesla had just completed a design review for AI5, which will initially be manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan before production ramps in Arizona. As per Musk, consolidating Tesla’s chip design efforts into one architecture has allowed the company to focus its silicon talent on delivering a single high-performance platform.

“Just had a great design review today with the Tesla AI5 chip design team! This is going to be an epic chip. And AI6 to follow has a shot at being the best (by) AI chip by far. Switching from doing 2 chip architectures to 1 means all our silicon talent is focused on making 1 incredible chip. No-brainer in retrospect,” Musk wrote in his post.

In a follow-up post, the CEO also stated that the company’s upcoming AI5 chip “will probably be the best inference chip of any kind” for models below ~250 billion parameters, with the “lowest cost silicon and best performance per watt.” Musk added that AI6, which follows AI5, “has a shot at being the best AI chip by far.”

AI6 as Dojo’s successor

While AI5 is nearing production, Musk has also pointed to AI6 as Tesla’s next major target. The chip will be manufactured at Samsung’s upcoming Texas facility, part of a multibillion-dollar deal to support Tesla’s next-generation products such as the Cybercab and the Optimus humanoid robot. Musk also noted that AI6 could effectively replace Project Dojo as Tesla’s training platform, given its potential for both inference and training workloads.

Industry veterans have echoed this view, with former Apple and Rivian engineer Phil Beisel suggesting that “AI6 is now Dojo.” Musk appeared to agree, responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk has also noted on X that he would personally be walking the line in Samsung’s upcoming AI6 factory in Texas, to make sure that the facility’s output is accelerated according to Tesla’s requirements.

(1) Ale𝕏andra Merz 🇺🇲 on X: “@elonmusk We sure will. And we will deliver. And then you will. And we will thank you again.” / X

(1) Brett Winton on X: “On a random Thursday in September Tesla Robotaxi app downloads cracked the top 10 of all time highest US ride-hail activation days https://t.co/r9oS4BqUfg” / X

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(1) Elon Musk on X: “@niccruzpatane We haven’t shown Optimus V3 yet. It is sublime. The second two images are V2 and V2.5.” / X

The Trillion-Dollar Man: Tesla Tries to Lock Down Elon Musk – WSJ After a year of distractions, the automaker moves to motivate its CEO with a vision and challenge for the next decade

the official comp package document is here tm252289-4_pre14a-gen

(2) Joseph 💎✌️🪑🇺🇸 Tesla Long Term Investor on X: “$2,730 per share at 25 P/E (adj. EBITDA). I’m sorry but I think 25 P/E is a bit too conservative even in 2030. I have always assumed 40 P/E in my projection, that brings it to $11T – $12T market cap if Elon hits all the milestones in reality. $TSLA NFA” / X

 

(1) Tesla Robotaxi on X: “Robotaxi app now available to all Download to join waitlist – expanding access soon https://t.co/gYsB3ZkbZB” / X

A smartphone screen displaying the Tesla Robotaxi app. A map shows a route with a pickup point marked and an estimated arrival time of 5 minutes. Text on the screen reads "A ride can arrive in 5 min," "Pickup at Tesla HQ, CA," "10:15 am," "Palo Alto, CA," "10:25 am," and "Book Ride: 10:25 ETA - $4.20." The word "Robotaxi" is stylized in glowing white text above the phone.

(1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “BREAKING: Tesla’s Robotaxi app is now available to all iOS users in the US. You can join the waitlist in the app. Tesla says robotaxi access expanding soon. Android coming later. Download here: https://t.co/oTZ6P5Blkj https://t.co/pXfrxc6zgm” / X

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  • 09/03/2025 – here comes the Optimus V3

(2) Marc Benioff on X: “Elon’s Tesla Optimus 🤖🔥 is here! Dawn of the physical Agentforce revolution, tackling human work for $200K–$500K. Productivity game-changer! Congrats @elonmusk, and thank you for always being so kind to me! 🚀 #Tesla #Optimus https://t.co/bA5IYIylE1” / X

(2) Marc Benioff on X: ““The boys are back in town!” Amazing what @elonmusk is doing to create the future. Just inspiring. ❤️🤖 https://t.co/7tNdzACaYk” / X

Marc Benioff wearing a blue cap and black shirt, standing next to Elon Musk in a black shirt. A humanoid robot with a black and white body marked "Tesla" on its chest stands between them. The setting appears to be an industrial or factory environment with blue railings and equipment in the background.

  • 09/01/2025 – Tsla’s master plan Part IV

(2) Tesla on X: “Master Plan Part IV” / X, details of the plan is here master.plan.IV master.plan.IV

(2) Dave Lee on X: “I’m thinking this is just the intro to Master Plan Part IV. The real master plan ought to have more specifics. Just my two cents.” / X

(2) Elon Musk on X: “@heydave7 Fair enough. Will add more specifics.” / X

(2) Herbert Ong on X: “@heydave7 My guess is that the reason they kept Master Plan 4 to be high level and general is bc they’ll share the specific milestones as part of Elons comp plan. That’s what I hope anyways” / X

“Elon Musk is just an extraordinary engineer, and I love working with him. We’re going to build many more computers together. I’m delighted to be working with him. I think the Optimus opportunity is just right around the corner. It’s very likely that human robots are going to be robots that we can deploy into the world relatively easily & this is the first robot that really has a chance to achieve the high volume and technology scale necessary to advance technology and I think this is likely to be the next multi trillion dollar industry.” 一 Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang

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(2) Eric Jorgenson 📚 ☀️ on X: “Friendly reminder that @elonmusk called his shots. 19 years ago, he posted the @Tesla Master Plan: 9 years ago, he posted Master Plan Part Deux: https://t.co/KhEpJNmsOj” / X

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I don’t wanna sound like Gary Black but here are some MASSIVE $TSLA catalysts ahead: 1. V14 – next month. 2. Robotaxi goes public next month. 3. Robotaxi expansion. 4. FSD available globally. 5. FSD licensing deal(s). 6. Affordable models. 7. Austin megapack factory. 8. Cybercab volume production. 9. Optimus volume production. 10. Semis. 11. Rate cuts. 12. Elon’s NEW Comp package.

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Anyone notice Elon is going harder than ever right now… like Macrohard? Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX are on fire. Tesla: Robotaxi, FSD v14. xAI: Grok 4, Grok Imagine, Colossus 2, Macrohard SpaceX: Starship on deck While others are sitting on the beach in August, Elon v2 going faster than Elon v1. Velocity required.

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(1) Elon Musk on X: “@jamesdouma V14 will be better than human for sure, but I don’t know if it will be 10X. Maybe 2X to 3X. V15 has a shot at 10X.” / X

(1) Sawyer Merritt on X: “NEWS: Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin will be open to the public starting next month (September). Sooner than I thought!” / X

(1) Elon Musk on X: “@Michael_L_Rauch It will be open access next month” / X

(1) Gali on X: “my take on @Tesla Dojo updates classic media skewing rapid iteration & progress as “failure” Tesla’s in house chip design is a key advantage and reason their full self driving tech (and soon Optimus) can make complex decisions in real time – the limiting factor for real world” / X

About Timeless Investor

My name is Samual Lau. I am a long-term value investor and a zealous disciple of Ben Graham. And I am a MBA graduated in May 2010 from Carnegie Mellon University. My concentrations are Finance, Strategy and Marketing.
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