My Speculation on Fed Rate hike in Sept – chance increases somewhat, hinges on future data
So far as I know, Dudley said it is possible to have rate hike in Sept; Kaplan said it is on the table (link); George wants an immediate hike even in July; John William (Williams-Speech-081816)(From bank of San Francisco, the largest Fed bank) wants an earlier hike than latter – even though William is not 2016 committee member or alternate member.
Between now and Sept, there is two more job reports and GDP may be revised. So Fed is in the mode of wait and see.
References: Ref#1(monetary20160823a1), Ref#2 (William_Dudley_speech_081816)
2016 Committee Members
- Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors, Chair
- William C. Dudley, New York, Vice Chairman – no hike (July 25), then said possible in Aug 18rd
- Lael Brainard, Board of Governors – no hike (Sept 12brainard20160912a)
- James Bullard, St. Louis – vote hike
- Stanley Fischer, Board of Governors
- Esther L. George, Kansas City – vote hike
- Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland – vote hike
- Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors
- Eric Rosengren, Boston – vote hike
- Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors
Alternate Members
- Charles L. Evans, Chicago – no hike (July 25)
- Patrick Harker, Philadelphia – vote hike
- Robert S. Kaplan, Dallas – vote hike
- Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis – no hike (July 25 also on Sept 12)
- Michael Strine, First Vice President, New York
Federal Reserve Bank Rotation on the FOMC
Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Members | New York Chicago Philadelphia Dallas Minneapolis |
New York Cleveland Richmond Atlanta San Francisco |
New York Chicago Boston St. Louis Kansas City |
| Alternate Members |
New York† Cleveland Richmond Atlanta San Francisco |
New York† Chicago Boston St. Louis Kansas City |
New York† Cleveland Philadelphia Dallas Minneapolis |
Atlanta – hike (July 25), and said warrant a serious discussion (Sept 120912-lockhart)
San Francisco – hike (July 25)
Richmond – hike (July 25, also on Sept 02 – see link lacker_speech_20160902 and lacker_slides_20160902)
The following news also confirms my findings
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/eight-fed-district-bank-boards-backed-discount-rate-hike-in-july
