IMF and Bloomberg news on GSE

More IMF news on GSE. Will the legislation come this month? What should I do with this? Allocate more to GSE preferreds?

A seeking alpha’s reader’s comment

Both those articles seem to have ZERO reasoning behind them. absolute garbage.
Solution will be:
1.) the easiest solution
2.) safest for housing mkt
3.) allow all parties to have most return on investment.
these scenarios pushed by benzinga and joe light dont fit any of those objectives. If the Treasury wants most money, they will release/ recap in private mkts and exercise warrants, which is easy and safe(companies have already been reformed).
The closest plan to that is MOELIS.Treasury and FHFA wouldnt allow $3B in capital to be retained just to put in receivership, and fannie just built an insane new building talking about their future: these things dont happen if they just plan on killing them.
Also anything in a plan like that would cause the law suits to go on for the next decade and have the potential of having to pay shareholder MUCH MUCH more than they would get out of receivership, which is an un-necessary risk that they will not take.
I don’t fully understand the Corker Warner plan; however as I’ve stated ad nausea it has NOTHING to do with maximizing investment and EVERYTHING to do with a philosophical view of the governments role in the housing market.This looks like the far rights initial salvo, break em up and sell off their functions to the pure(er) free market banks. My understanding of the underpinnings of this philosophy is that it would eliminate the 30 year mortgage which would tank home values which in the long run would be good for consumers as they would plow substantially less money into their lifetime home ownership (and renters) expense that could be used elsewhere in the economy.I don’t see a way this doesn’t wreak havoc on the economy in the short to mid term which I would expect will eventually kill this idea. Mnuchin also stated he wanted buy in from both sides of the political aisle and there has been mention lately that this is expected to be a bipartisan bill. The left is not going to like relinquishing their ability to manipulate the housing market through the GSE’s and this will also bring the final bill back to the middle and probably a simple re-cap and release. Commons still likely get whacked in the re-cap.
It’s about protecting tax payers. I’m sure the assets will be transferred to Ginnie Mae. For this process to go through, Junior PFD must be whole to settle lawsuits since taking away $5T and past profits without compensation to junior PFDS won’t stand in any court. These PFDs are owned by bank/pension fund/retirement fund and their rights are protected if assets are being taken away from the GSES. Also hedge funds seem to successfully lobbied crooked politicians.Ackman/Ichan are the only two major common shareholders and have no lawsuits and have no sayings in the process.Common shareholders will own the two spun off GSEs. This is where the next opportunity will come if common shareholders willing to double down.
But it will take time since political optic will linger for sometime as conservatorship continues.

Thursday, Jan 4, 2018

Surprise: In 4Q17, GSE MBS Issuance Actually Increased

By John Bancroft

The volume of single-family home loans flowing into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities rose unexpectedly in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to a new ranking and analysis by Inside Mortgage Finance.

The two GSEs issued $228.82 billion of single-family MBS during the fourth quarter, a slim 2.3 percent increase from the prior period. The gain was the result of a hefty 27.2 percent surge in refinance loans that more than offset an 8.3 percent drop in the volume of purchase mortgages securitized by the two GSEs.

Even with the bump in refi activity, 56.4 percent of Fannie/Freddie business during the fourth quarter came from purchase loans. In fact, the two GSEs securitized more purchase-money mortgages last year – $472.77 billion – than in any year since 2007.

The GSE market veered sharply in Freddie’s direction during the fourth quarter. The company recorded a hefty 20.0 percent jump in single-family MBS issuance from the July-September cycle, while Fannie business was down 8.5 percent. For full details and an exclusive ranking of the top loan sellers to the GSEs, see the new edition of Inside Mortgage Finance.

Other areas of interest: OriginationsSecondary/MBS,Data/RankingsFannieFreddieGSEs


GOP Tax Bill Will Boost GSE Earnings by $3 Billion. However…

By Paul Muolo

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will bolster their 2018 earnings by a combined $3 billion thanks to GOP tax reform legislation signed into law by President Trump in late December, according to calculations from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Like most of corporate America, the two government-sponsored enterprises will see significant increases in earnings from the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. KBW estimates that for full year 2018, Fannie will earn $12.0 billion – with $1.9 billion of it courtesy of the tax cut – while Freddie will earn $6.4 billion, a bump up of $1.1 billion.

And now for the bad news: The lower corporate tax rate will force Fannie and Freddie to write down the value of their deferred tax assets by $15.3 billion. In separate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Fannie estimated its DTA writedown at $10.0 billion, Freddie at $5.3 billion.

Those charges will be taken for the fourth quarter of 2017 and likely wipe out earnings for the period. For the full story, including the legislative outlook for GSE reform, see the new edition of Inside Mortgage Finance.

Other areas of interest: OriginationsServicingFannieFreddie,GSEsTrends & Profitability

Incenter Out with Another MSR Offering, This One for $3 Billion

By Paul Muolo

Incenter Mortgage Advisors, Denver, is in the market with a $3 billion bulk offering of mortgage servicing rights backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans. It’s the second MSR auction announced this week by IMA.

According to the offering circular, the seller is an independent mortgage banker “with an impeccable reputation” and a “long history.”

Colorado accounts for most of the receivables at 30.8 percent, but Texas isn’t too far behind at 22.3 percent. Overall, 33 states are represented.

The delinquency rate on the package is 1.02 percent with foreclosures and bankruptcies totaling 0.08 percent. Bids are due Jan. 11.

Other areas of interest: ServicingSecondary/MBSMergers & AcquisitionsFannieFreddieMortgage Lending & Servicing

Short Takes: Senate GSE Bill Due Out This Month? / But Will it Pass? / The Unstoppable LendingTree / Mortgages and the Weed Trade? / Hamilton Hires Former Wells-JPM-Freddie Exec to be CEO

By Paul Muolo

Sometime this month, Senate Banking Committee ChairmanMike Crapo, R-ID, will release his GSE reform bill, or at least an outline of it. That’s the opinion of Cowen & Co. analyst Jaret Seiberg, who expects the measure to open up the common securitization platform to more than just Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

And now comes the big question: Does a GSE bill have any chance of passing this year? Industry stakeholders have suggested to Inside Mortgage Finance that when Fannie and Freddie request a fresh draw of taxpayer money from Treasury to deal with their deferred tax asset problem, it will poison the well for conservative Republicans. Or is that too cynical of a view? For more details, see the new edition of Inside Mortgage Finance

Bloomberg news

Fannie-Freddie Overhaul Might Mint Hedge Fund Riches, Losses

 Updated on 
  • Senators are said to weigh proposals that impact shareholders
  • Investors say outcome has been like ‘Waiting for Godot’

They’ve lost in court. They’ve been rebuffed by government agencies. Now, the fates of hedge funds and other investors in mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could lie with an old adversary: the U.S. Congress.

Whether shareholders make a killing or get wiped out might hinge on a yet-to-be written provision of a draft Senate bill that marks lawmakers’ latest attempt to overhaul Fannie and Freddie, which have been wards of the state for almost a decade.

The section currently reads “open pending further discussion,” said people familiar with the matter. It’s meant to deal with the bailout agreements that rescued the companies during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, including addressing the fact that the Treasury Department owns almost $200 billion in senior preferred stock.

If the government relinquishes all or a portion of that money, profits could flow to investors who’ve sunk billions of dollars into Fannie and Freddie, including some of the biggest names in finance such as John Paulson, Bruce Berkowitz and Blackstone Group LP.

In 2014, the last time senators tried to pass legislation, lawmakers said shareholders would likely be left with nothing.

Bob Corker

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

This time things could be different. The authors of the latest bill — Tennessee Republican Bob Corker and Virginia Democrat Mark Warner — are considering a proposal that could make investors in preferred shares whole or close to it, while owners of common shares could fare worse, said people familiar with the lawmakers’ thinking who asked not to be named because the legislation is still being drafted.

The people said whether and how shareholders get compensated in the transition to the new system is still an open question. And some political analysts have said it will be difficult to pass any housing-finance bill in 2018 given that it’s an election year, such an effort would likely require 60 votes in the Senate and lawmakers are distracted by other issues such as funding the government.

What happens to Fannie and Freddie isn’t just important to hedge funds, but also critical to the U.S. housing market. The companies guarantee nearly $5 trillion in mortgage bonds, which keeps borrowing costs low and helps make home loans readily available. They’ve been under government control since 2008, and determining what to do with them is perhaps the biggest remaining overhang from the financial crisis.

The draft proposal being worked on in the Senate technically kills Fannie and Freddie, even as it preserves their core operations of buying mortgages from lenders and securitizing them, the people said.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which controls Fannie and Freddie, would direct the companies to sell or transfer their assets and then put them in receivership, the people said.

In a receivership, funds are available to common shareholders only after covering more senior claims, such as the FHFA’s expenses as a receiver, the government’s securities and preferred shareholders.

Common shares of Fannie and Freddie were down more than 3 percent as of 11:45 a.m. in New York, while some classes of preferred shares were flat.

The Treasury owns warrants to acquire nearly 80 percent of the companies’ common stock and owns $195.5 billion in senior preferred shares. Outside investors in preferred shares have included Paulson & Co., Berkowitz’s Fairholme Funds and Blackstone, while common investors include Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management.

Corker and Warner’s plan would form successor companies to Fannie and Freddie that would raise new capital and be freed from government control once new competitors entered the mortgage-finance market. The lawmakers would also repeal the old firms’ federal charters and forbid future entities from calling themselves Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, a ritual sacrifice that could appease hard-line Republicans who’ve long wanted the companies eviscerated.

Spokeswomen for Corker and Warner declined to comment.

Fannie and Freddie Died But Were Reborn, Profitably: Quicktake

Chris Gamaitoni and Isaac Boltansky, analysts for Compass Point Research & Trading, said they continue to believe that “persistent policy and political headwinds” put the odds of the current Congress passing legislation at about 10 percent.

“But the evolution of the conversation on Capitol Hill is critical as it will shape the next iteration of the reform conversation,” they wrote in a Thursday research note.

Acrimony between investors and the government has built over the past several years, particularly after the Obama administration revised the terms of their bailout agreements in 2012.

Initially, the companies had to pay a 10 percent dividend to the Treasury. But more than five years ago, the government altered that arrangement to sweep nearly all of the companies’ profits. The Treasury Department at the time said the change would hasten their wind-down and help conserve Fannie and Freddie’s remaining bailout funds.

Investor Lawsuits

Fairholme, Perry Capital and other investors sued Treasury and the FHFA, arguing that they were entitled to some of the companies’ profits. Some investors, including Paulson, also worked with public relations and lobbying firms to press their cases to politicians on Capitol Hill.

When senators — including Corker and Warner — attempted to pass a bill to wind down and replace Fannie and Freddie in 2013 and 2014, the investors stepped up their campaign. The 60-Plus Association, which said it was advocating on behalf of pensions and retirees, bought ads in key senators’ states, equating the bill to “Obamacare” for mortgages. Corker became one of the shareholders’ top targets after saying at the time that any legislation would probably leave investors with nothing.

A bill passed the Senate Banking Committee in May 2014, but never received a floor vote. Still, the investors’ campaign didn’t end. Some shareholders hired private investigators to dig up dirt on their perceived enemies. Others funded payments to advocacy groups, college professors and nominally independent experts in exchange for publicly supporting their cause in opinion columns.

In the meantime, while investors have received documents through discovery that they said bolstered their lawsuits, every court to rule so far has dismissed their cases. FHFA Director Mel Watt, whose term ends in 2019, has also rebuffed calls to release Fannie and Freddie from government control.

‘Never Showed’

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and his deputies have said they want this year to work on bipartisan legislation to end Fannie and Freddie’s bailouts, putting the ball back in Congress’ court. Corker is strongly motivated to get a bill passed in 2018 because he doesn’t plan to seek re-election in November.

Hedge-fund firm Akanthos Capital Management bought Fannie and Freddie preferred shares years ago for pennies on the dollar and has held on through lawmakers’ earlier efforts to wind down the companies and the lawsuit setbacks, said Chief Executive Officer Michael Kao. Kao said he thinks the Trump administration and Congress won’t likely wipe out his shares.

“The odds are better than they were in the last administration, but this has been like ‘Waiting for Godot,”’ said Kao, citing the Samuel Beckett play in which two men await the arrival of the titular character. Godot in the play, acknowledges Kao, “never showed.”

About Timeless Investor

My name is Samual Lau. I am a long-term value investor and a zealous disciple of Ben Graham. And I am a MBA graduated in May 2010 from Carnegie Mellon University. My concentrations are Finance, Strategy and Marketing.
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