Geopolitics is playing a greater role in economics and market. Therefore, I need to study it thoroughly
- 10/26/2018
Stocks Are Still Cheap from Wesbury 101 Economic commentary
Takeaways:
1. interest rate is far from natural rate (GDP + inflation =5%), so recession is not imminent
2. China does not want to lose face in the trade war with US, but in reality, China is gradually conceding in tariff and other demands from US
3. US midterm election will not charge the course of US in terms of tax, deregulation and growth trend since the chance of Republicans lose both House and Senate is low.
- 10/23/2018
China Will Do “Whatever It Takes” to Stop Its Falling Stock Market
China is in “Whatever It Takes” mode, according to Donald Straszheim, Evercore ISI’s main China watcher, an allusion to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s 2012 famous pledge to save the euro by any means necessary.
On Sunday, President Xi Jinping vowed to provide “unwavering” support for the private sector. Unlike the West, which has to deal with nettlesome democratic institutions, China can implement whatever measures its leadership deems necessary. Xi, of course, has effectively solidified his power as president for life, so his pledge can be counted on to be carried out.
Those include targeted micro measures, such as the People’s Bank of China directing 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) to China Bond Insurance Co. to provide credit support, the PBoC supporting bond financing, and an array of measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to prop up companies. In addition, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that a plan for income-tax cuts has been drafted.
- Dec 2016
China’s Great Leap Backward
The country has become repressive in a way that it has not been since the Cultural Revolution. What does its darkening political climate—and growing belligerence—mean for the United States?
