Policies

2021 US policies and past 2020 Presidential Election

• 01/22/2021 – First headwind for Biden’s agenda. Do not expect his agenda to be started and implemented smoothly. Prepare for the volatility

Senate chaos threatens to slow Biden’s agenda

President-elect Joe Biden is facing big headaches on getting his priorities off the ground on Capitol Hill.

Biden pledged to unify the country after the tumultuous years of the Trump presidency, and Democrats are vowing to use their first unified government in more than a decade to enact a “bold” agenda.

But they are facing significant hurdles to getting anything done fast. There’s a looming second impeachment trial for former President Trump and, in the meantime, a chaotic Senate that is stuck in limbo amid a standoff on a power-sharing agreement with Republicans.

• 01/19/2021 – good to understand the upcoming admin’s agenda

Biden’s First-100-Days Agenda Targets Executive Orders, Fresh Covid Aid
President-elect plans to reverse some Trump policies swiftly while attempting to steer big-ticket legislation through narrow Democratic majorities in Congress

1. Push Congress to approve $1.9 trillion Covid-relief
2. Expand testing for Covid-19
3. Mandate mask wearing on federal property and during interstate travel
4. Rejoin Paris climate accord
5. Introduce comprehensive immigration reform proposal
6. Reverse travel ban from several largely Muslim and African countries
7. Extend restrictions on evictions and foreclosures

• 12/19/2020 – new ideas and proposals do not have support from advisors, and they might not work.

Amid Vaccine Rollout and Historic Hack, Trump Remains Focused on Reversing Election
The president has been largely out of sight, paying little public attention to any events other than his efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory

WASHINGTON—In a week that began with the Electoral College affirming Joe Biden’s victory and ended with Vice President Mike Pence taking a new Covid-19 vaccine, with a massive national security breach in between, President Trump has been largely out of sight.

Instead, six weeks after the election, the president remains fixated on his unsuccessful efforts to overturn the results, advisers say. He pays close attention to TV coverage of state hearings on alleged election fraud, though no evidence of widespread fraud has surfaced, and in tweets and phone calls has urged his advisers and lawyers to keep going.

Trump Pursues Appointing Special Counsel to Probe Election, Hunter Biden
President has expressed frustration with Attorney General William Barr as efforts to overturn election have failed

Trump discussed Sidney Powell as voter fraud special counsel in White House meeting, report says

1. President Donald Trump on Friday discussed naming attorney Sidney Powell as a special counsel investigating voter fraud, according to a report from The New York Times.
2. According to The Times, most of his advisors didn’t support the plan, including Rudy Giuliani, the president’s personal attorney.
3. Trump elevating Powell to such a role would be a stunning turnaround from just last month, when Giuliani and campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis said that she was “practicing law on her own” after being purged from the campaign team.

Fired attorney Sidney Powell is back, advising Trump to chart a scorched-earth course
Friday’s Oval Office meeting with Trump “must be condemned,” a critic says.

President Donald Trump had cut attorney Sidney Powell from his legal team after she launched multiple lawsuits aimed at overturning the 2020 election — all failures — but Trump has now welcomed the conspiracy-minded flamethrower back into the White House to plot out further efforts to extend his presidency.

Trump and Powell met in the Oval Office Friday night, ABC News has confirmed, and were joined by Trump’s former national security adviser, retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, who has been publicly prodding Trump to take unprecedented steps to seize a second term — including declaring martial law and ordering the military to oversee new elections in the battleground states that Trump lost.

Nevertheless, Trump invited Powell to consider the possibility that she be appointed a special counsel and be given high-level security clearances to investigate the 2020 election. The meeting was highly contentious, sources told ABC News, filled with screaming and demands from Powell, who called other Trump aids “quitters” for giving up the fight.

Powell did not immediately respond to ABC News’ request for comment.

Powell’s allure to Trump appears to be her willingness to explore debunked, stem-winding conspiracy theories suggesting that foreign actors plotted with an American deep state to rig election machines for former Vice President Joe Biden. During Friday’s meeting, a source said, the assembled group pondered an executive order to seize and examine voting machines across the country.

Powell’s allure to Trump appears to be her willingness to explore debunked, stem-winding conspiracy theories suggesting that foreign actors plotted with an American deep state to rig election machines for former Vice President Joe Biden. During Friday’s meeting, a source said, the assembled group pondered an executive order to seize and examine voting machines across the country.

That idea had initially been raised by Giuliani earlier in the week, but was quickly shot down by Cipollone and Meadows. When Powell raised it Friday night, the two dismissed it again.

“I don’t even know how that would work,” U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) Commissioner Ben Hovland told ABC News. “The voting machines are owned by the local jurisdictions in most cases; those are state and local property, so I don’t even know how that makes sense.”

• 12/08/2020 – republicans are gradually standing by with Trump. We will see what will happen next

Republicans Block Inaugural Resolution Recognizing Biden’s Win

Republicans on the congressional panel planning inauguration ceremonies blocked a resolution stating that they were preparing for the swearing-in of President-elect Joe Biden, as President Donald Trump’s continues his bitter battle over the election result.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Sen. Roy Blunt and House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy voted against the resolution in the six-member committee, which is evenly split between the two parties, infuriating the panel’s Democratic members.

• 12/08/2020 – Lawsuit form Texas to supreme court, more might come. We will see what will happen

Texas AG Paxton Files Election Suit Against 4 Battleground States

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed suit on Tuesday against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, claiming the four states exploited the pandemic to justify ignoring election laws.

In papers filed with the U.S. Supreme Court, Paxton claimed the states unlawfully enacted last-minute changes, which skewed the results of the general election.

The papers also allege that the majority of the rushed decisions, made by local officials, were not approved by the state legislatures, thereby circumventing the Constitution.

“The battleground states flooded their people with unlawful ballot applications and ballots while ignoring statutory requirements as to how they were received, evaluated and counted,” according to a statement posted on the Texas attorney general’s website.

Texas Sues Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin at Supreme Court over Election Rules

Texas is asking the Supreme Court to order the states to allow their legislatures to appoint their electors. The lawsuit says:

Certain officials in the Defendant States presented the pandemic as the justification for ignoring state laws regarding absentee and mail-in voting. The Defendant States flooded their citizenry with tens of millions of ballot applications and ballots in derogation of statutory controls as to how they are lawfully received, evaluated, and counted. Whether well intentioned or not, these unconstitutional acts had the same uniform effect—they made the 2020 election less secure in the Defendant States. Those changes are inconsistent with relevant state laws and were made by non-legislative entities, without any consent by the state legislatures. The acts of these officials thus directly violated the Constitution.

…

This case presents a question of law: Did the Defendant States violate the Electors Clause by taking non-legislative actions to change the election rules that would govern the appointment of presidential electors? These non-legislative changes to the Defendant States’ election laws facilitated the casting and counting of ballots in violation of state law, which, in turn, violated the Electors Clause of Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution. By these unlawful acts, the Defendant States have not only tainted the integrity of their own citizens’ vote, but their actions have also debased the votes of citizens in Plaintiff State and other States that remained loyal to the Constitution.

Texas approached the Supreme Court directly because Article III provides that it is the court of first impression on subjects where it has original jurisdiction, such as disputes between two or more states.

Documents follow:

TX v State Motion 2020-12-07 FINAL by Breitbart News on Scribd

• 12/07/2020 – what will happen in the next 24 hours? should I get ready for it for my positions?

Trump: Hospitalized Giuliani ‘Doing Well,’ No Fever

Trump reiterated his charge the presidential vote Nov. 3 “was a rigged election,” ABC News reported.

“It’s a disgrace to our country. It’s like a Third World country,” he said. “I think the case has been made, and now we find out what we can do about it. You’ll see a lot of big things happening the next couple days.”

Trump faces Tuesday’s “safe harbor” deadline, the day Congress mandates election results be considered conclusive ahead of Electoral College electors meeting Dec. 14.

“safe harbor” December 8, 2020: The Safe Harbor Deadline

• 12/04/2020 – stock buy back might get restricted in Biden admin

Stock Buybacks: What Every Investor Needs to Know
They have been attacked by many academics and progressive politicians. Now, with a new administration, the battle could soon get even more heated.

Share buybacks: Yea or nay?

For investors, one of the big results of the election could wind up being the fate of corporate stock buybacks. The widely used financial tool—which has been a source of support for the record-setting stock market—has been attacked by some academics and progressive politicians. Now, those politicians will be in a better position to do something about it.

• 12/01/2020 – direction of Biden’s econ team. “It’s time to invest in infrastructure, clean energy, climate change, manufacturing”

Biden’s Economic Team Charts a New Course for Globalization, With Trumpian Undertones
The president-elect’s advisory picks have grown circumspect about pitfalls Trump highlighted

Biden Rolls Out Economy Team Amid Alarm Over Worsening Pandemic

Joe Biden set his economic policymaking tone with a focus on reducing income inequalities as he introduced his economic team on Tuesday.

The team was led by his pick for treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, and several others who will be critical to crafting his administration’s response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

Yellen joined Biden and Kamala Harris in Wilmington, Delaware, as did Neera Tanden, who Biden intends to nominate to run the Office of Management and Budget, and Cecilia Rouse, his intended nominee to lead the Council of Economic Advisers.

“Times are tough, but I want you to know that help is on the way,” Biden said. “Let me be clear with this team, and others we’ll add in weeks ahead, we’re going to create a recovery for everybody.”

“It’s time to invest in infrastructure, clean energy, climate change, manufacturing,” he said. “It’s time we address the structural inequities in our economy, that this crisis has laid bare.”

Will Past Be Prologue for Janet Yellen at Treasury? A Review of Her Career Offers Clues.

• 12/01/2020 – Bill Barr deals a big blow to Fraud allegation

AG Barr to AP: DOJ Has No Evidence of Fraud That Would Change Election Outcome

Attorney General William Barr said Tuesday the Justice Department has not uncovered evidence of widespread voter fraud that would change the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

His comments come despite President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the election was stolen, and his refusal to concede to Democrat Joe Biden.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Barr said U.S. attorneys and FBI agents have been working to follow up specific complaints and information they’ve received, but they’ve uncovered no evidence that would change the outcome of the election.

“To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have affected a different outcome in the election,” Barr told the AP.

• 12/01/2020 – not sure this is true or not, need cross-examination

Trump Ballots Defaulted and Switched to Biden Votes on Dominion System: Maricopa GOP Chairwoman

Maricopa County GOP chairwoman Linda Brickman on Nov. 30 testified before members of the Arizona State Legislature that she personally observed votes for President Donald Trump being tallied as votes for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden when input into Dominion machines.

Brickman, the GOP head of one of the country’s largest counties and a veteran county elections worker, submitted her testimony in a sworn affidavit under penalty of perjury. She testified that she and her Democratic partner witnessed “more than once” Trump votes default and shift to Biden when they were entering votes into Dominion machines from ballots that couldn’t be read by machines.

She alleged that she was later threatened by election supervisors at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center (MCTEC) for speaking out about what she had witnessed.

“I observed, with my Democratic partner, the preparation of a new ballot, since the original one was soiled, or wouldn’t go through the tabulators. I read her a Trump Republican ballot, and as soon as she entered it into the system, the ballot defaulted on the screen to a Biden Democratic ballot,” Brickman told GOP Arizona State legislators on Monday.

• 11/30/2020 – Yellen’s new economy? She’s a Keynesian from the James Tobin school who believes in spending as fiscal stimulus and low interest rates. As Federal Reserve Chair in Mr. Obama’s second term, she was slow to raise interest rates and reduce the Fed’s bond purchases. She’ll likely favor a 2009-style policy mix next year with a spending blowout while urging the Fed to monetize it.

Return of the Obama Economists
Biden’s policy advisers were in charge during the secular stagnation years.

If Joe Biden is trying to distinguish his emerging Administration from Barack Obama’s, he hasn’t succeeded in the choice of economic advisers he rolled out Monday. They’re Obama veterans who believe in more spending, more regulation, higher taxes, and easier money. Let’s hope the result is better than what became known as “secular stagnation” during the Obama years.

Janet Yellen, the Treasury nominee, is an economist with a distinguished political resume. She’s a Keynesian from the James Tobin school who believes in spending as fiscal stimulus and low interest rates. As Federal Reserve Chair in Mr. Obama’s second term, she was slow to raise interest rates and reduce the Fed’s bond purchases. She’ll likely favor a 2009-style policy mix next year with a spending blowout while urging the Fed to monetize it.

The overall message of Mr. Biden’s picks is of a progressive team that views government as the leading engine of economic growth. Our guess is that they’ll use the lingering damage from the pandemic to propose a major spending and tax increase in early 2021.

The irony is that on present trend Mr. Biden will inherit an economy that is recovering much faster than Keynesian economists predicted earlier this year. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has raised its estimate for fourth-quarter growth to 11%, and Wall Street economist Ed Hyman has raised his to 8%.

This isn’t 2009. Once the Covid vaccine is delivered broadly, the economy should soar. The job of the Obama economists will be to keep it going, not dampen growth with the same policy mix that produced the slowest recovery in decades the last time they held power.

another detailed study of Yellen

Will Past Be Prologue for Janet Yellen at Treasury? A Review of Her Career Offers Clues.

• 11/24/2020 – public hearings are coming?

Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan Legislatures to Hold Public Hearings on Election: Trump Campaign

• 11/17/2020 – study of Biden stocks. I need to review them carefully

Stocks for a Biden Win, a Trump Victory — and a Divided Government

Investors eye discounted U.S. healthcare sector as Biden’s lead in polls grows

• 11/15/2020 – hard to prove this claim

Maria Bartiromo – Sidney Powell: The evidence is coming in so fast I can’t even process it all

• 11/14/2020 – the break up of big tech might come

Potential Biden AG pick Klobuchar: Google breakup should be ‘on the table’
The Justice Department filed an antitrust suit against Google on Oct. 20

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., a rumored candidate for the attorney general position in President-elect Joe Biden’s Cabinet, argued at an event Thursday that the possibility of breaking up major tech firms such as Alphabet’s Google should be “on the table.”

Klobuchar spoke out in support of the Justice Department’s antitrust case against Google during her virtual keynote address at the American Bar Association’s Fall Forum on Thursday. The Democratic senator noted the Justice Department’s case suggested the potential enforcement of structural changes at Google.

• 11/13/2020 – need to watch out the development of this news. Since it is an executive order, Biden admin (if he successes) can overturn it immediately once he takes office

Factbox: List of 31 Chinese companies designated by the U.S. as military-backed

(Reuters) – The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled an executive order prohibiting U.S. investments in Chinese firms that Washington says are owned or controlled by the Chinese military.

The order could impact some of China’s biggest companies. It is designed to deter U.S. investment firms, pension funds and others from buying and selling shares of 31 Chinese companies that were designated by the Defense Department as backed by the Chinese military earlier this year.

Below is a list of those companies based on Department of Defense data found here here and here here. Most of them have subsidiaries listed in mainland China and/or Hong Kong.

Trump Bars Investment in Chinese Firms With Military Ties
The ban, which affects companies including Huawei, China Mobile and China Telecom, is the administration’s first major move toward decoupling American financial markets from China.

WASHINGTON — President Trump issued an executive order Thursday barring Americans from investing in a list of companies with ties to the Chinese military, arguing that such investments pose a risk to national security.

The order applies to 31 Chinese companies previously identified by the Defense Department as having links to China’s military. The list includes prominent Chinese technology, manufacturing and infrastructure companies, such as China Mobile Communications Group, China Telecommunications Corporation, Huawei, Sinochem Group, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, China Railway Construction Corporation, Inspur Group and Aviation Industry Corporation of China.

The order takes effect on Jan. 11, and prohibits the purchase of shares in the companies or investment in emerging market funds that include the firms. But it gives American investors until Nov. 11, 2021, to fully divest from any shares or funds that involve the companies.

Trump to ban Americans from investing in Chinese companies
Trump targets China’s capital markets

SOME OF THE CHINESE COS. TARGETED BY U.S. 

• China Aerospace Science and Industry Group Corporation [CASIC]
• Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC)
• China North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco)

CHINA-US TRADE WAR: LATEST NEWS

Ticker	Security	Last	Change	Change %
CHA	CHINA TELECOM	31.78	-2.58	-7.51%
CHL	CHINA MOBILE LTD.	31.71	-1.38	-4.16%
CHU	CHINA UNICOM LTD.	6.40	-0.40	-5.88%

Some of these companies are listed on Chinese and major U.S. exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange which is owned by ICE and the Nasdaq.

Trump Bars Americans From Investing in Firms That Help China’s Military
Ban applies to 31 companies including state-run aerospace, shipbuilding and construction enterprises

Those firms, which include large state-run aerospace, shipbuilding and construction companies as well as technology companies such as the video-surveillance-equipment maker Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., enable China’s access to advanced technologies and expertise to help the PLA expand and take a more aggressive posture around the world, administration officials have said.

Among the 31 companies, many are traded on mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stock exchanges, and some are purchased by investors as a part of mutual and other funds. Two of the companies—China Mobile Communications and China Telecommunications Corp.—have units whose shares or depositary receipts trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

• 11/12/2020 – not sure this is true or not. We need proof to ensure the integrity of American election, otherwise, this is just mis-information. Nevertheless, we did see very few supporters in JB’s rally, yet his voter counts set the historical record. Very interesting!

BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Analysis of Election Night Data from All States Shows MILLIONS OF VOTES Either Switched from President Trump to Biden or Were Lost — Using Dominion and Other Systems

We’ve reported on numerous events in the 2020 election which are being referred to as system ‘glitches’ in the media.
Last night we provided another ‘glitch’, this time in Wisconsin, which if reversed would eliminate Biden’s reported vote lead in the state.

Here are the (unaudited) results by state:

The Chart Lists Votes Switched from Trump to Biden and Votes That Were Lost by Trump

	Switched Votes	Lost Votes
Dominion Systems
Pennsylvania	220,883	941,248
New Jersey	80,242	20
Florida	21,422	456
Michigan	20,213	21,882
New York	18,124	623,213
Georgia	17,407	33,574
Ohio	14,965	5,102
Virginia	12,163	789,023
California	7,701	10,989
Arizona	4,492	0
Minnesota	2,766	195,650
Tennessee	2,330	0
Louisiana	2,322	0
Illinois	2,166	54,730
Wisconsin	2,078	3,408
Colorado	1,809	0
Utah	1,627	0
New Hampshire	973	116
Iowa	938	477
New Mexico	268	4,610
Missouri	0	20,730
Nevada	0	0
Alaska	0	0
Washington	0	0
Hawaii	0	0
	434,889	2,705,228
Kansas and Texas use Premier Election Solutions, Owned by Dominion
Texas	14,954	30,557
Kansas	1,674	2,154
	16,628	32,711
Election Systems & Software
Nebraska	30,086	50
Kentucky	8,129	23,849
Arkansas	3,664	20,748
South Carolina	2,779	2,119
Montana	2,330	1,276
South Dakota	1,347	1
North Dakota	234	681
Maryland	203	0
North Carolina	0	15
District of Columbia	0	0
	48,772	48,739
Unknown Systems
Connecticut	3,834	272
Massachusetts	3,613	51
Oregon	2,557	0
Alabama	1,170	408
Mississippi	355	0
Maine	271	35
Rhode Island	6	13
West Virginia	0	78,300
Idaho	0	0
Oklahoma	0	0
Indiana	0	0
Delaware	0	0
Vermont	0	0
	11,806	79,079
OVERALL TOTALS	512,095	2,865,757

Based on this initial analysis over 500,000 votes were identified that were switched from President Trump to Joe Biden.

Nobody was following Joe Biden and he had zero support, and yet his vote count surpassed the greatest campaign in US history led by President Trump.

We are supposed to believe Joe Biden defeated President Trump and at the same time lost seats in the US House and state legislatures.  This is highly improbable.

It looks like the Democrats did everything imaginable in their attempt to steal this election.

The problem was they never expected President Trump to lead a record breaking campaign and they got caught.

• 11/12/2020 – no sure whether this is true or not, but it does quite real. If this is confirmed, it will prove that US election system is really broken

Data deep dive on Dominion Voting Systems offers incontrovertible proof of election hack
If the Trump campaign and his army of attorneys don’t have this information yet, they need it as soon as possible. This is the smokiest gun we’ve seen so far.

A post on TheDonald.win by user TrumanBlack has sparked a little attention, though not nearly enough. It needs a lot more because within the data sorted and examined is the smoking gun the Trump campaign can use to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the election was hacked. Massive amounts of votes were changed from President Trump to Biden. Other votes were removed altogether without reason. This “cyber coup” is much bigger than most of us realized. While we’ve been focused, and rightly so, on analog voter fraud, there is technological fraud on a gargantuan scale that happened. More importantly, it has been proven.

We are going through the data now, but everything we’ve combed through so far seems to check out. For example, in Georgia there appears to have been 17,407 votes switched. Biden is currently leading in Georgia by 14,148 votes. Pennsylvania is even worse with over one million votes either switched or “lost.”

Combine this data with what we’re learning about other forms of voter fraud and it’s easy to see how a man who couldn’t fill a small auditorium with supporters was supposedly able to generate more votes than any American candidate in history. The truth is this: He didn’t. Millions of votes were manufactured on his behalf. He (or someone on his behalf) used “The Hammer” and “Scorecard” to steal this election.

Here is the data dump on TheDonald.win in its entirety. Because it runs a clear risk of being “disappeared,” we are posting it without edits, errors and all. Please share this data with everyone you can. Let’s get this information out there to keep Trump supporters encouraged. We also need to make sure this data reaches the right hands in the Trump campaign.

REMINDER: THIS DOESN’T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ALL THE HUNDRED THOUSANDS OF TRUMP VOTES DESTROYED, BURNED AND RIPPED APART, THE THOUSANDS OF BALLOTS JUST MARKED FOR BIDEN. THIS IS THE EVIDENCE WE’VE FOUND SO FAR.

PEDES GET IN HERE. I saw the video on The Gateway Pundit [ https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/breaking-huge-another-system-glitch-captured-live-cnn-election-night-20000-votes-swapped-trump-biden-video/ ] and I decided to do some digging of my own, into a more reputable source that can verify that the glitch was indeed real, and that it affected the votes, instead of it being just a display glitch on that news channel. So I went digging into the Edison data [ https://static01.nyt.com/elections-assets/2020/data/api/2020-11-03/race-page/pennsylvania/president.json] and I found this damning evidence [ https://i.maga.host/RNPN3Oz.png ]. As can be seen in the image, only 54 votes were added, but the ratio changed in Biden’s favor by a whole 0.6%! This is proof that not only did the glitch happen, but it doesn’t seem to have been reverted at all.

EDIT : BIG UPDATE, I made a script to run through the data and gather all instances where votes switched from Trump to Biden, Lost Votes means that the total amount of votes counted decreased by that amount throughout the counting. I’ve only done states that use Dominion Voting Systems so far.

• 11/10/2020 – election voter fraud investigation from Barr

• 11/09/2020 – Biden on key issues – I need to study more in depth to get ready

Where Joe Biden Stands on Key Issues
The president-elect has promised to undo large parts of Trump’s policies in areas from health care to immigration

Silicon Valley Gets Another President Skeptical of Big Tech
Joe Biden has expressed wariness about the power of tech giants, which expect four more years of scrutiny

Biden Charts Course for New Administration
President-elect’s transition team reviews series of executive orders that could reverse Trump administration policies

• 10/25/2020 – A blue wave might mean higher rates – financial banks might be benifited

Does a “Blue Wave” = Higher Rates?

The question of the week in bond-land is, “what will the impact of the ‘blue wave’ be?” In our Market Insights: Planning for Potential 2020 Election Results (planning-for-potential-2020-election-results), WisdomTree offered a variety of scenarios for investors to consider. One such outcome was a Democrat sweep, or “blue wave,” whereby the presidency and both houses of Congress would be controlled by the Democrat Party. Last week in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market, this possibility began to filter into the conversation—if not the outright pricing mechanism—to a certain degree.

So how does the UST market view this? Based upon price action last week, combined with attendant market commentary, it appeared as if investors were coming down on the side of our scenario #2: Increased government spending will lead to higher growth. Put simply: higher government outlays/GDP + rising budget deficits = higher UST 10-year yields. As of this writing, the yield was just shy of 0.80%, and as you can see from the above graph, this level has not been penetrated since June.

• 10/10/2020 – review of Trump’s presidential journey

Donald J. Trump: The Long Road to the White House (1980 – 2017)

• 10/03/2020 – The Economist says Joe Biden may not be bad for the economy. But the argument is Trump is more possible to be better for the economy. So in term of economy, why should we choose uncertain Biden, rather than more certain Trump?

Joe Biden would not remake America’s economy

• 09/27/2020 – I need to prepare for Biden vs Trump portfolio in less than 2 months

Biden basket vs Trump trade: Picking a presidential stock portfolio

BIDEN BASKET

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY: A stronger expected “green energy” push under a Biden administration could support alternative energy stocks. For example, tax credit extensions would provide a boost for solar stocks such as Sunnova Energy International, SunPower Corp and Enphase Energy, according to Credit Suisse.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Tesla shares already have had a mammoth run during the Trump administration, but some believe a Biden presidency could further fuel the electric vehicle company’s shares.

“Biden has proposed new tax incentives, government purchases, and other measures to benefit EVs in particular,” CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said in a report.

Other potential winners from a Biden victory would be auto suppliers focused on electrification and green, emission-free technologies, such as Aptiv, BorgWarner and Visteon, Nelson wrote.

INFRASTRUCTURE: A large infrastructure spending package “may be an early priority for a Biden administration as it seeks a bipartisan win,” according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

Biden’s plan would boost a broad group of engineering and construction companies, with AECOM, Jacobs Engineering Group and MasTec among the biggest beneficiaries, according to Citi analyst Andrew Kaplowitz.

TARIFF TRADE: A Biden administration could see a calming of the U.S.-China tariff war. “Should trade policy be less-focused on the use of tariffs, both importers and exporters may benefit,” according to David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.

JP Morgan in a July report listed Procter & Gamble, Thermo Fisher and 3M among a number of stocks that could outperform should a Biden presidency lead to a “de-escalation” in U.S.-China tariff tensions.

TRUMP TRADE

TAX RELIEF: A Biden loss could spell additional relief for companies that benefited from the president’s corporate tax cuts.

In its July report, JP Morgan listed AT&T, Target and Waste Management among companies that benefited from Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that could underperform in a Biden presidency.

BANKS: Along with higher corporate taxes, banks could face concerns over more regulations under a Biden administration, particularly if a progressive such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren takes a high-profile role.

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods say a Trump win with Republicans retaining the Senate is the best election scenario for banks, noting “the Republican agenda of reduced regulation remains intact.” Stocks to own in that scenario include Wells Fargo and Citigroup, KBW wrote.

DEFENSE: Trump would probably “succeed in maintaining large defense spending, despite a Democratic House, given the reality of great power struggle with China and Russia,” BCA Research strategists said in a recent report.

FOSSIL FUEL COMPANIES: “Support for energy companies and specifically fossil fuels appears to be an ongoing objective for Trump,” according to LPL’s Detrick. He added that most companies in this sector, excluding those in renewable energy, will likely benefit from a Trump victory.

• 08/19/2020 – Policy comparison

Where Biden and Trump stand on key issues

• 08/09/2020 – good guest on the stock market

The Presidential Election Will Be Here in Less Than 100 Days. What It Means for the Stock Market.

• 08/07/2020 – prepare portfolio for election

3 Potential 2020 Election Outcomes—and What They Could Mean for Investors

• 07/26/2020 – Biden’s combating climate change plan will impact these companies

Tesla and NextEra Energy Stock Could Gain From Biden’s Climate Plan. Ford, Polaris Stock Could Fall.

RBC Capital Markets recently asked 35 investors about which auto stocks would do best and worst under a Democratic government. They liked Tesla, Nikola (NKLA) and auto electronics maker Aptiv (APTV). “The top 3 ‘losers’ were Harley-Davidson (HOG), Ford (F) and Polaris (PII),” the survey showed.

Utilities like NextEra Energy (NEE) that have embraced renewable generation would also be poised to rise more. Some are already outperforming their peers. NextEra trades for 26 times its expected earnings, while other utilities like Exelon (EXC) trade for less than 15 times.

Coal stocks would invariably suffer, though coal has gone downhill even with supportive federal policies under President Trump. Natural gas producers like EQT (EQT) would likely struggle under the plan. Natural gas is now the number one source of electricity in the country, and proponents say it’s a necessary bridge fuel until renewables become cheap and reliable enough to power more of the grid. Biden has said he doesn’t want to ban fracking like some other Democrats, but any plan to move the U.S. away from fossil fuels would invariably reduce investment in gas-fired plants.

• 07/14/2020 – good detailed comparison of Trump and Biden’s plan

Where Biden and Trump stand on key issues

detailed look at their policies and proposals in seven key areas

• 07/13/2020 – Biden’s radical plan?

Biden Offers Big Government Plan to Address Racial Inequality
Democratic candidate embraces new spending and initiatives, contrasting with Trump’s market-oriented approach

• 07/10/2020 – I need to continue to follow Biden’s agenda

Biden uses progressive message to roll out his moderate economic plan

1. Joe Biden took to the podium Thursday in Dunmore, Pennsylvania, to unveil his economic platform as a candidate running for president of a country facing simultaneous economic, health and racial crises.
2. The message Biden laid out in opening remarks echoes ideas from progressive Democrats, who have pushed for Biden to use the moment to rewrite rules with drastically wider social safety nets and much higher taxes on the wealthy.
3. The policies themselves were not starkly different from those that Biden had previously outlined, though.

• 06/15/2020 – Trump trails Biden in poll by 8.1%, but he has three big themes with reasonable strength:a recovering economy, bashing China and positioning himself as the law-and-order candidate

Trump Writes Campaign Script With Three Big Themes
President hopes to turn around his troubled reelection bid by touting a recovering economy, bashing China and positioning himself as the law-and-order candidate

• 05/21/2020 – help understand the future directions

United States Strategic Approach to The People’s Republic of China (detailed pdf:

U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20)