Study of SPXS, SQQQ, SOXS, DRV, TECS and TZA

Study of SPXS, SQQQ, SOXS, DRV, TECS and TZA

Bull thesis based on bearish view – at least short term maybe

1. LET THE WILD RUMPUS BEGIN
2. We are in the early stages of an inflation driven financial crisis
3. The Greatest Market Bubble of All Time. A Full Bear Counter-Thesis
4. the FINRA margin debt is at all all all time high.  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/01/19/margin-debt-down-0-93-in-december
5. record high option call volume
6. Retail investors keep buying US stocks despite sell-offs in January 2022
7. Interest rate hike and Fed hawkish approach
8. Russia invasion
9. inflation scare
10. Option and margin account crash
11. bitcoin crash
12. Elon Musk, Other Leaders Sell Stock at Historic Levels as Market Soars, Tax Changes Loom – WSJ
13. another surge on Cv-19?
14. earning season will pass by the end of February
15. Home prices are now rising much faster than incomes, studies show According to the report, from 2019 to 2021, the average house-price-to-income ratio increased from 4.7 to 5.4 — a 14.9% increase that’s more than double the recommended ratio of 2.6. Essentially what this means is homes cost 5.4x what the average person earns in one year. U.S. House Prices Are Exponentially Outpacing Income
16. ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry’s 2021: Elon Musk, GameStop, crypto, crashes Burry’s warning is one year earlier, but the logic does not change ‘The Big Short’ investor Michael Burry sold most of his US stocks before the market rout. He might regret scrapping his bet against Cathie Wood.
17. Buffet Indicator through the roof

Bear thesis based on bullish view

1. economy continues to grow
2. US, China and the world to reopen
3. Cv-19 is done
4. earning season is now
5. the rate spread is still increasing which indicates economy expansion, far from inverse (i.e. Recession)
6. 
7. it might take 1.5 years to get inverse – 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M). however, Russian invasion might drop the 10 yr treasury rate significantly which will accelerate inverse yield curve

Price history

• 03/21/2022 – higher int rate might drag down the high tech stocks and lift SOXS and TBT

Powell Says Fed Will Consider More-Aggressive Interest-Rate Increases to Reduce Inflation – WSJ

Bringing down inflation and avoiding recession will be ‘challenging task,’ says central bank leader

Mr. Powell repeatedly stressed the uncertainty facing Fed officials as they navigate the aftereffects of a pandemic and the recent war in Ukraine, and he said officials are ready to shift their policy in a more disruptive direction.

“If we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal-funds rate by more than [one-quarter of a percentage point] at a meeting or meetings, we will do so,” he said. “And if we determine that we need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral and into a more restrictive stance, we will do that as well.”

• 03/18/2022 – China to stay neutral?

In video call, Biden presses China’s President Xi Jinping on Russia support

• 03/18/2022 – be alert to the possibility of nuclear war, I need to stay somewhat hedged

U.S. Expects Putin to Brandish Nuclear Threat if Invasion Stalls

A new assessment by the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency says Vladimir Putin will likely threaten a nuclear option if the war drags on.

“Protracted occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory threatens to sap Russian military manpower and reduce their modernized weapons arsenal, while consequent economic sanctions will probably throw Russia into prolonged economic depression and diplomatic isolation,” the direction, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, said in the assessment, Bloomberg reported.

“As this war and its consequences slowly weaken Russian conventional strength … Russia likely will increasingly rely on its nuclear deterrent to signal the West and project strength to its internal and external audiences.”

Putin Likely to Make Nuclear Threats If War Drags, U.S. Says
Defense Intelligence Agency chief offers a grim assessment
Russia may ‘rely on its nuclear deterrent’ to signal strength

• 03/17/2022 – Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky has slapped down Russia’s 15-point peace plan by insisting Ukraine’s priorities include ‘restoring territorial integrity’.

President Zelensky restates his red lines and demands Putin doesn’t keep an inch of his land after Kremlin issued ’15-point peace plan’ that involved Kyiv giving up Crimea and Donbass region
1. Russia made a list of proposals for Ukraine to secure ceasefire and withdrawal
2. That included Ukraine recognising the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk
3. Zelensky said Ukraine’s ‘crystal clear’ priorities include territorial ‘integrity’

Volodymyr Zelensky has slapped down Russia’s 15-point peace plan by insisting Ukraine’s priorities include ‘restoring territorial integrity’.

The Kremlin had drafted a proposed agreement with a list of 15 demands which insisted that Ukraine recognise the annexation of Crimea and the independence of Donbass.

But Zelensky has seemingly rejected the proposals, despite Ukrainian cities continuing to be pummelled by Russian forces, with Mariupol’s theatre targeted in Putin’s latest savage attack.

• 03/16/2022 – Zelenskyy calls on U.S. to ‘do more’ in virtual address to Congress

full video on youtube Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers virtual address to the U.S. Congress — 3/16/22

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered an impassioned plea to the U.S. Congress on Wednesday morning for additional aid and for President Biden to spearhead the world’s defense of Ukraine.

While Zelenskyy delivered the majority of his speech in Ukrainian with an English translator, he ended his remarks speaking in English, addressing Biden directly.

“You are the leader of the nation, of your great nation,” Zelenskyy said, “I wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.”

• 03/16/2022 – A great thesis on China’s choice – Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively. – If China makes the right choice in two weeks, will we see a big rally of Chinese stocks?

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice

I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

1.  Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia’s domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

2.  The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.

3.  Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged down. This period will not exceed a few years.

4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at the hands of the West. After Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia’s victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree. As people’s livelihoods are severely affected and as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia’s economy on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d’état, or another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West. It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia’s status as a great power would come to an end.

II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape

1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework, destroying Europe’s dream to achieve independent diplomacy and self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget; Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality. With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe’s reliance on US natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the Western world will rebound.

2. The “Iron Curtain” would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy. The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.

3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat itself: theories on “the end of ideology” may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more “hegemony” both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.

4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard; South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western values and systems.

III. China’s Strategic Choice

1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The law of international politics says that there are “no eternal allies nor perpetual enemies,” but “our interests are eternal and perpetual.” Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.

2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.

3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China’s international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, China’s top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S. and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.

4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia’s strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.

• 03/13/2022 – will the war hurt chip companies?

Chip Makers Stockpiled Key Materials Ahead of Russian Invasion of Ukraine – WSJ
The global semiconductor industry, already stretched, secured needed neon and palladium, but long-term risks remain

• 03/13/2022 – will we see the end of war soon? what should I do to prepare for it?

Russia and Ukraine Give Brightest Assessment Yet of Progress in Talks on War

(Reuters) -Russian and Ukrainian officials gave their most upbeat assessments yet on Sunday of progress in their talks on the war in Ukraine, suggesting there could be positive results within days.

• 03/10/2022 – Enrique Abeyta’s optimistic view on the market – I think those are the reasons why even though with constant negative headlines (Russian/Ukraine war) daily, we still see so many buying on dips. This might can last for quite a while.

Here’s Why We’re Still Optimistic on the Market

So this week in Empire Elite Trader, let’s lay these out to give three “green shoots” to investors looking to navigate the current market environment…

1. Economic growth momentum To put it simply, the U.S. economy currently has great momentum. This is the reason why inflation is a problem. There is some “noise” in the numbers because of the pandemic recovery… but fourth-quarter 2021 GDP growth in the U.S. was 5.6% in real dollars. This is taking out the impact of inflation. Looking at the combination of consumers and corporations, Bank of America (BAC) estimates that they may be sitting on $19 trillion of cash – up 35% from 2019.  Goldman Sachs (GS) recently noted that authorizations for share buybacks are forecast to be $1 trillion in 2022. To put that in perspective, the total market cap of the U.S. stock market is roughly $48 trillion… so this is about 2% of the total value. That is a real number.

2. Cash on the sidelines While you will see some datasets talking about how much debt there is, they don’t talk about how much cash is on the other side… As a result of the pandemic, consumers who didn’t lose their jobs had a lot less “stuff” to spend their money on… and they also got many of the cash payments that were paid out by the federal government. Even consumers who did lose their jobs often ended up with some more cash as a result of these factors.  While some of this may have been spent in the economic recovery, much of it has not… and some analysts we have read see this as almost $2.4 trillion. That’s more than enough to offset the impact of inflation.

3. Jobs momentum Similar to economic growth, we also have great momentum in the jobs market.  Remember, if people are working, they spend money and maintain and grow the economy. The more people that begin working that were not, the higher likelihood of economic growth. There is a very high correlation between job losses and recessions. We had 10.9 million job openings in the U.S. as of December, and we just reported a gangbuster employment number.

• 03/10/2022 – If Putin is not mad, just mis-calculation, then maybe the nuclear war risk might be minimum, at least for the short term. The war might be dragged into long term unless Putin is taken out suddenly.

Putin Is Angry, but He Isn’t Mad – WSJ
He’s acted with arrogance and recklessness in Ukraine, but there’s ample historical precedent for his errors.

• 03/10/2022 – Will Russia unleashes chemical or biological weapons? this will be a disaster for civilians

Russian Claims of Biological Weapons Research in Ukraine Stir Fears of Wider Risk – WSJ
Western officials are concerned the accusations could serve as a pretext for Moscow to unleash chemical or biological weapons

• 03/09/2022 – documentary movies to understand Putin and Russia – worth spending time to watch

Inside Putin’s Russia — Watch the full documentary

Putin’s Way (full documentary) | FRONTLINE

Putin’s Revenge: Part One (full film) | FRONTLINE

Putin’s Revenge: Part Two (full film)

• 03/09/2022 – still uncertainties after Ukraine president said willing to not joining NATO

Russian airstrike ravages maternity and children’s hospital; Kremlin threatens US retaliation: Live Ukraine updates

Kremlin says US ‘economic war’ could bring retaliation

The U.S. is waging a “de facto economic war” and Russia could react with retaliatory actions, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday. Peskov was commenting on the U.S. ban on Russian energy imports and a comment on the war by Victoria Nuland, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, that the U.S. “must ensure that this Ukraine gambit is a strategic failure for Putin.”

The U.S., European Union, United Kingdom and a scores of other nations have also introduced sanctions against Russian legal entities and private individuals.

“The U.S., undoubtedly, declared an economic war against Russia and they are waging this war,” Peskov said. He said Russia will do “what in the best way corresponds to our interests” but gave no details on the possible retaliatory sanctions.

Chernobyl loses power; Ukraine says radioactive leak possible

The Chernobyl Nuclear Plant, occupied by Russian troops for several days, has been disconnected from the power grid and is a threat to leak radioactive substances, Ukraine’s Ukrenergo National Power Company said. Repairs are impossible because of enemy fire and the military presence, the utility said.

The state-run nuclear company Energoatom said radioactive substances could be released from the plant because it cannot properly cool spent nuclear fuel. The International Atomic Energy Agency, however, said the spent fuel storage pool and the volume of cooling water are “sufficient for effective heat removal” without access to electricity

The plant, the site of one of the world’s worst nuclear disasters in 1986, has not produced power in several years. Decommissioning has not been completed, however, and authorities say there are about 20,000 spent fuel assemblies at Chernobyl that cannot be kept cool amid a power outage.

Russian Military Action Will Stop “In A Moment” If Ukraine Meets Conditions: Kremlin
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters that Russia had told Ukraine it was ready to halt its military action “in a moment” if Kyiv met its conditions.

• 03/09/2022 – Putin’s article ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ – I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

here is the full article (Article by Vladimir Putin)

This is what is actually happening. First of all, we are facing the creation of a climate of fear in Ukrainian society, aggressive rhetoric, indulging neo-Nazis and militarising the country. Along with that we are witnessing not just complete dependence but direct external control, including the supervision of the Ukrainian authorities, security services and armed forces by foreign advisers, military ”development“ of the territory of Ukraine and deployment of NATO infrastructure. It is no coincidence that the aforementioned flagrant law on ”indigenous peoples“ was adopted under the cover of large-scale NATO exercises in Ukraine.

This is also a disguise for the takeover of the rest of the Ukrainian economy and the exploitation of its natural resources. The sale of agricultural land is not far off, and it is obvious who will buy it up. From time to time, Ukraine is indeed given financial resources and loans, but under their own conditions and pursuing their own interests, with preferences and benefits for Western companies. By the way, who will pay these debts back? Apparently, it is assumed that this will have to be done not only by today’s generation of Ukrainians but also by their children, grandchildren and probably great-grandchildren.

The Western authors of the anti-Russia project set up the Ukrainian political system in such a way that presidents, members of parliament and ministers would change but the attitude of separation from and enmity with Russia would remain. Reaching peace was the main election slogan of the incumbent president. He came to power with this. The promises turned out to be lies. Nothing has changed. And in some ways the situation in Ukraine and around Donbas has even degenerated.

In the anti-Russia project, there is no place either for a sovereign Ukraine or for the political forces that are trying to defend its real independence. Those who talk about reconciliation in Ukrainian society, about dialogue, about finding a way out of the current impasse are labelled as ”pro-Russian“ agents.

Again, for many people in Ukraine, the anti-Russia project is simply unacceptable. And there are millions of such people. But they are not allowed to raise their heads. They have had their legal opportunity to defend their point of view in fact taken away from them. They are intimidated, driven underground. Not only are they persecuted for their convictions, for the spoken word, for the open expression of their position, but they are also killed. Murderers, as a rule, go unpunished.

Today, the ”right“ patriot of Ukraine is only the one who hates Russia. Moreover, the entire Ukrainian statehood, as we understand it, is proposed to be further built exclusively on this idea. Hate and anger, as world history has repeatedly proved this, are a very shaky foundation for sovereignty, fraught with many serious risks and dire consequences.

All the subterfuges associated with the anti-Russia project are clear to us. And we will never allow our historical territories and people close to us living there to be used against Russia. And to those who will undertake such an attempt, I would like to say that this way they will destroy their own country.

The incumbent authorities in Ukraine like to refer to Western experience, seeing it as a model to follow. Just have a look at how Austria and Germany, the USA and Canada live next to each other. Close in ethnic composition, culture, in fact sharing one language, they remain sovereign states with their own interests, with their own foreign policy. But this does not prevent them from the closest integration or allied relations. They have very conditional, transparent borders. And when crossing them the citizens feel at home. They create families, study, work, do business. Incidentally, so do millions of those born in Ukraine who now live in Russia. We see them as our own close people.

Russia is open to dialogue with Ukraine and ready to discuss the most complex issues. But it is important for us to understand that our partner is defending its national interests but not serving someone else’s, and is not a tool in someone else’s hands to fight against us.

We respect the Ukrainian language and traditions. We respect Ukrainians’ desire to see their country free, safe and prosperous.

I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.

Today, these words may be perceived by some people with hostility. They can be interpreted in many possible ways. Yet, many people will hear me. And I will say one thing – Russia has never been and will never be ”anti-Ukraine“. And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide.

• 03/09/2022 – 3 theses on the Russian-Ukrainian war

1. Putin’s decision to start the war on Ukraine isn’t foreign policy. It’s domestic one. Putin first consolidated his power through the war in 1999-2000 and it worked. So he repeated this trick every time his popularity started waning

2. Many in the West exaggerate how robust the Putin’s regime is. It’s not only dependent on Western technologies and imports, it also can’t decrease its dependence without a renegotiation of power balance. Which means it exists only as long as the West doesn’t take action

3. What will be the result of this war? That largely depends on Western, primarily American reaction. If Putin manages to win a small victorious war again and get away with that, it will not only increase his authority but trigger tons of terrirotiral conflicts all over the world

• 03/09/2022 – Ukraine starts to give in to Russia? Ukraine Open to Russia’s Neutrality Demand But Won’t Yield Territory

In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership

President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine, a delicate issue that was one of Russia’s stated reasons for invading its pro-Western neighbor.

In another apparent nod aimed at placating Moscow, Zelensky said he is open to “compromise” on the status of two breakaway pro-Russian territories that President Vladimir Putin recognized as independent just before unleashing the invasion on February 24.

“I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that … NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine,” Zelensky said in an interview aired Monday night on ABC News.

“The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia,” the president added.

Referring to NATO membership, Zelensky said through an interpreter that he does not want to be president of a “country which is begging something on its knees.”

Russia has said it does not want neighboring Ukraine to join NATO, the transatlantic alliance created at the start of the Cold War to protect Europe from the Soviet Union.

In more recent years the alliance has expanded further and further east to take in former Soviet bloc countries, infuriating the Kremlin.

Russia sees NATO enlargement as a threat, as it does the military posture of these new Western allies on its doorstep.

Shortly before he shocked the world by ordering the invasion of Ukraine, Putin recognized as independent two separatist pro-Russian “republics” in eastern Ukraine — Donetsk and Lugansk — that have been at war with Kyiv since 2014.

Putin now wants Ukraine, too, to recognize them as sovereign and independent.

When ABC asked him about this Russian demand, Zelensky said he was open to dialogue.

“I’m talking about security guarantees,” he said.

He said these two regions “have not been recognized by anyone but Russia, these pseudo republics. But we can discuss and find the compromise on how these territories will live on.”

“What is important to me is how the people in those territories are going to live who want to be part of Ukraine, who in Ukraine will say that they want to have them in,” Zelensky said.

“So the question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them,” the president said.

“This is another ultimatum and we are not prepared for ultimatums. What needs to be done is for President Putin to start talking, start the dialogue instead of living in the informational bubble without oxygen.”

Ukraine Open to Russia’s Neutrality Demand But Won’t Yield Territory, Aide Says

you tube video on interview with President Zelenskyy on ABC Though success in replacing Russian volumes has been limited to date, oil prices traded lower following an interview with President Zelenskyy on ABC. The Ukraine leader said, “regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question” and followed by referring to “unrecognized republics” in saying, “we can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on.” Although comments from the Kremlin Monday, paired with Zelenskyy’s interview point to some framework for a diplomatic solution, few analysts are anticipating a peace deal anytime soon.

• 03/09/2022 – in-depth viewpoints on Russia/Ukraine war. Need to take time to watch

Why is Ukraine the West’s Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer

37:58 What should be done 39:50 Consequences 44:02 Ukraine 1:07:20 Germany

• 03/07/2022 -This thing could really drag on for a long time. One additional outcome: Ukraine gives in to Russian’s invasion and starts peace talk/process

How will Russia’s war with Ukraine end? Here are 5 possible outcomes

1. Patchy control Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow’s and the West’s next moves unpredictable. However it’s widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin, loathing Ukraine’s current pro-Western government and aspirations to join the EU and NATO, wants to install a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv. Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory. Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, told CNBC Friday that the Russians “have a whole lot of combat power left and a lot of capacity to scale up the violence, which seems to already be happening. This thing could really drag on for a long time.”

2. Purge and partition? Some analysts agree that any patchy control over Ukraine by Russia could lead to some kind of partitioning of the country, particularly as Russia becomes firmly entrenched in eastern Ukraine — particularly in the Donbas region where it recognized the independence of two pro-Russian republics ahead of its invasion of the wider country.

3. Insurgency Most warn that Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available. Close watchers of Russia like Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, have said that Russia is likely to face a long, drawn-out, pricey and painful occupation of Ukraine. In this scenario, “the conflict drains Moscow’s coffers and resolve, ultimately forcing a withdrawal after much violence and death,” an outcome that has echoes of Russia’s ill-fated, unpopular and costly invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, a conflict that lasted 10 years and led to the deaths of 15,000 Russian soldiers.  In this scenario, the strategists noted, Russia would realize it has “once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history.” While this scenario might appear positive for Ukraine, with Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion, Ukraine would be “devastated” in the process, the strategists said.

4. NATO vs. Russia The Western military alliance NATO has repeatedly refused to directly intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as doing so would likely bring it into direct conflict with Moscow which, for its part, has warned that any country that “interferes” in what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine will face untold consequences. Countries on the EU’s (and NATO’s) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for conflict to spill over into their own territories.

5. A miracle? Analysts of course agree that an unequivocal withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be best possible outcome for the country in its dire situation. Analysts at the Scowcroft Center noted that, in their “rosiest” possible scenario for how the Ukraine conflict could end, Ukraine could see its own defensive capabilities bolstered by NATO, allowing its military and civilian resistance to “overcome the odds and grind Moscow’s advance to a halt.”

• 03/07/2022 – Central banks are delaying or softening rate increases after relying on easy money to get through the Covid-19 pandemic. At the heart of the latest bout of uncertainty is Russia, the world’s 11th-largest economy and a crucial energy supplier to much of Europe. Western nations have in recent days imposed the most sweeping economic sanctions against a major country in recent decades. Christopher Smart, former U.S. Treasury/National Security Council special assistant to President Barack Obama, said the uncertainty among global businesses was reminiscent of that which accompanied the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Global Economy Braces for Impact of Russia’s War on Ukraine – WSJ
Central banks are delaying or softening rate increases after relying on easy money to get through the Covid-19 pandemic

Soaring commodity prices, sweeping financial sanctions and the potential for a ban on energy imports from Russia after it invaded Ukraine are threatening to hobble a global economy still weakened by the Covid-19 pandemic. They are also complicating the task of central banks that had been preparing to phase out easy money.

On both sides of the Atlantic, inflation is at levels that haven’t been seen for decades, and still rising. Global stock markets are wilting and the dollar is surging against other currencies as investors rush for the safety of U.S. assets.

• 03/07/2022 – After years of living in Moscow, I have bad news: No one should expect the Russian people to suddenly rise up against Putin now

Years of state-controlled media, stifled dissent and increases in standards of living have bred an almost impenetrable political complacency.

The Russian population has been lulled into a deep political sleep under Putin after being bombarded for years by such lies and misinformation on TV, following decades of a similar approach under Soviet rule. Why bother being engaged if you don’t know what to believe?

Many are convinced that Russia is simply trying to dislodge Nazis who have taken power in Kyiv and that Ukrainian people are welcoming Russian soldiers with open arms. Nowhere to be seen on state-controlled television are images of Ukrainian housing blocks blasted to dust and fleeing civilians killed by indiscriminate Russian shelling.

What little independent media remained has been entirely shut down under new rules from the Kremlin vowing to harshly punish any news outlet that deviated from the official line. Even foreign media has been forced to curtail operations so as not to run afoul of the new rules,

Average Russians have also seen their standard of living improve under Putin following the turbulent 1990s when Russia was recovering from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Wages have risen. Average people can afford foreign cars and annual holidays to the beaches in Greece and Egypt. For years, many had little interest in rocking the boat.

• 03/03/2022 -Most analysts think the Ukrainian military will sooner or later crack. It is fighting with all it has all the time, with no respite. Russia can keep reinforcing its front lines with fresh troops. not sure what will happen in the future

How Might the War in Ukraine End? Five Factors Will Shape the Outcome – WSJ

Russian forces have performed poorly thus far, but Ukraine’s military is expected to eventually crack. What then?

Here are five variables military analysts say could determine the course of the war:

1. Invading forces
2. Defending forces
3. Western response
4. Russian reaction
5. Peace talks

Most analysts think the Ukrainian military will sooner or later crack. It is fighting with all it has all the time, with no respite. Russia can keep reinforcing its front lines with fresh troops.

The question is: What then? The common assumption is that Moscow will seek to install an obedient government in Kyiv, leaving it to run the west of the country, while annexing a large part of the country east of the Dnipro River.

Western military analysts have expressed shock at how badly Russia’s forces performed during the early days of the invasion. They had expected that a military that had been modernized over more than a decade would quell the first phase of Ukrainian resistance fairly easily.

But Russia hasn’t undertaken a military operation combining different branches of the military since the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, and that wasn’t as complex.

“We’ve all been astonished that this new Russian army looks like the old Red Army—not very well trained, not very well commanded, with really quite poor logistics—which implies either a big failure of planning or…a big underestimation of the enemy,” said Mr. Clarke, the former director of the Royal United Services Institute.

Russia’s air force, navy and nuclear force have been partly or completely modernized, he said, but the army looks as though it hasn’t overcome past weaknesses.

“The Russians will learn,” said Richard Shirreff, a British former deputy military commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. “They’ll learn the hard way, by getting killed, that they’ll have to coordinate their…all-arms offense in a much more professional way than they have done so far,” he said, referring to their ability to bring together different elements of the operation.

The more likely scenario, according to some military analysts, is for the Russians to use significantly more firepower to drive farther into Ukraine, laying siege to cities or using heavy weaponry against them.

“It’s going to cause Putin to lash out, to get really vicious, to use indiscriminate fire and mass artillery in urban areas and flatten Ukrainian cities, and the consequence will be a terrible cost in human casualties,” predicted Gen. Shirreff.

• 03/03/2022 – Russia might continue the invasion until it successes. So far, The US still hasn’t seen any “muscle movements” following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s weekend announcement that he was putting his nuclear forces on high alert, a senior US defense official said on Monday.

France’s Macron thinks ‘the worst is yet to come’ in Ukraine after talking with Putin, reports say

1. France’s Macron thinks “the worst is yet to come” in Ukraine after talking with Putin on Thursday.
2. A senior French official said the 90-minute phone call did not yield any diplomatic progress.
3. The official said Putin was determined to carry out the ongoing war in Ukraine until “the end.”

Putin tells Macron Russia will achieve its goals in Ukraine

MOSCOW, March 3 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin told French leader Emmanuel Macron on Thursday that Russia would achieve the goals of its military intervention in Ukraine whatever happens, the Kremlin said.

In a statement issued after the French and Russian presidents spoke by phone, the Kremlin made clear its goals included the demilitarisation and neutrality of Ukraine.

‘Delusional’ Putin is intent on seizing ‘the whole’ of Ukraine to achieve ‘de-nazification’ with the worst violence yet to come, warns Macron after phone call with Russian leader

1. The two leaders shared a phone call today to discuss the situation in Ukraine
2. An aide to the French President said Putin plans to achieve his goals ‘in any case’
3. The call has reportedly led Macron to believe ‘the worst is yet to come’ in Ukraine
4. Macron in return told Putin he was ‘delusional’ and making a ‘major mistake’
5. He also urged the Russian to avoid civilian deaths and allow aid to conflict zones

French President Emmanuel Macron believes ‘the worst is yet to come’ in Ukraine after 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin ended with his Russian counterpart declaring his goals will be achieved ‘in any case’.

In the phone call initiated by Putin today, the Russian leader reiterated his determination to ‘neutralise’ Ukraine, whether diplomatically or by force, a senior aide to Macron said.

‘The expectation of the president is that the worst is to come, given what President Putin told him,’ the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

No Russian ‘muscle movements’ after Putin’s nuclear readiness alert, U.S. says

No Russian ‘muscle movements’ after Putin’s nuclear readiness alert, US says

The US still hasn’t seen any “muscle movements” following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s weekend announcement that he was putting his nuclear forces on high alert, a senior US defense official said on Monday.

But some former US officials and experts caution that it would be a mistake to write off Putin’s remarks as bluster, given the risk that Putin could decide to escalate to using nuclear weapons if he feels cornered over the war in Ukraine or if the war spills over into NATO.

Lavrov says Russia will continue Ukraine war till ‘the end’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday he believed some foreign leaders were preparing for war against Russia and that Moscow would press on with its military operation in Ukraine until “the end.”

Lavrov also said Russia had no thoughts of nuclear war.

Offering no evidence to back up his remarks in an interview with state television, a week after Russian invaded Ukraine, he also accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an ethnic Jew, of presiding over “a society where Nazism is flourishing.”

• 02/23/2022 – I need to study the possible path of Putin’s finish line in order to invest accordingly

Putin’s Endgame: Unravel the Post-Cold War Agreements That Humiliated Russia – WSJ

Why is there conflict in east Ukraine and what is Putin’s endgame? Here’s what you need to know

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into two pro-Russian, breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on Monday.
2. Western officials and analysts have scoffed at Putin’s claim that Russian troops sent into the region will act as “peacekeepers.”
3. Political analysts have been predicting that Russia could pull such a move for a while.
4. And conflict in the Donbas between separatists, backed by Russia, and Ukrainian troops is nothing new.

Russia could hit U.S. chip industry, White House warns

WASHINGTON, Feb 11 (Reuters) – The White House is warning the chip industry to diversify its supply chain in case Russia retaliates against threatened U.S. export curbs by blocking access to key materials, people familiar with the matter said.

The potential for retaliation has garnered more attention in recent days after Techcet, a market research group, published a report on Feb. 1 highlighting the reliance of many semiconductor manufacturers on Russian and Ukrainian-sourced materials like neon, palladium and others.

According to Techcet estimates, over 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon supplies come from Ukraine, while 35% of U.S. palladium is sourced from Russia.

• 02/22/2022 – It seems like US and allies can only do sanctions and nothing else?

LIVE: Biden Gives Update as Russia Orders Troops Into Eastern Ukraine | NBC News – YouTube

1. diplomacy is still open
2. more sanctions are coming
3. admin has plan to mitigate inflation such as oil/gas, and others

• 02/21/2022 – “What I would do is make sure you have some cash reserve,” he said. “There may be some great buying opportunities in the next couple of years.”

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham sees a ‘superbubble’ in markets and expects the S&P 500 to crash 43%. He recommends overseas stocks and cash as havens.

1. Jeremy Grantham outlined what investors should own when the “superbubble” bursts.
2. The GMO cofounder advised holding cash, avoiding US stocks, and bargain hunting in emerging markets.
3. Grantham said it was safe to own high-quality US stocks that can weather a serious downturn.

Jeremy Grantham recently diagnosed the fourth US “superbubble” in the past century, and warned the benchmark S&P 500 would crash 43% to around 2,500 after the bubble bursts.

The veteran investor and GMO cofounder explained in a Saturday interview with Fox Business how investors should position their portfolios against a backdrop of historic market speculation and the “touchy-feely characteristic of crazy investor behavior.”

“What I would do is make sure you have some cash reserve,” he said. “There may be some great buying opportunities in the next couple of years.”

The market historian has previously said he holds cash so he can deploy it easily, and a small amount of gold and silver.

“Secondly, I would try and avoid US stocks,” Grantham said. “If you have to own some, I would own high-quality. They always do better in a serious shake-up.”

Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors are caught in a historic bubble, said an imminent crash in the S&P 500 means a credit crisis is brewing.

“So, blue chips are the way to go. Avoid debt. And to the extent you can, avoid the US. It’s the most overpriced market,” he said.

“Real estate is overpriced everywhere in the world. But the stock markets outside the US are curiously not that bad. They’re in a bull market. They’re overpriced mostly, but they’re only normally overpriced,” he added.

“And there are a few cheap countries. Japan looks pretty cheap, the UK not so bad.”

He also touted emerging markets, saying traders could find bargains.

“If you look for the cheap stocks, growth versus value; growth has had an unprecedented decade,” he said. “It is probably the turn for cheap stocks again.”

“So emphasize cheap countries, cheap stocks, avoid the US. And if you have to buy the US; for heaven’s sake, pick the quality stocks and have a cash reserve.”

Grantham has previously criticized the Federal Reserve for not acknowledging the pain that follows for investors after a market bubble bursts.

“One of the main reasons I deplore superbubbles – and resent the Fed and other financial authorities for allowing and facilitating them – is the underrecognized damage that bubbles cause as they deflate and mark down our wealth,” Grantham said in a paper released last month.

• 02/16/2022 – Grantham is a permabear who always says a crash is coming

Jeremy Grantham warns share market crash is likely underway

however, Hmm…

“JEREMY GRANTHAM: Stocks will go up until October then they will crash.” Feb 2011.

“Jeremy Grantham – Market will crash badly after S&P tops 2,250” Sep 2014

“Jeremy Grantham: Market Will ‘Break a Lot of Hearts’ Next 20 Years” Apr 2019

There is a lot, lot more which I am too lazy to link, and I am too lazy to go back more into the past. I am guess it is more of a “predicted 20 of the last 2 crashes”.

Grantham is a permabear who always says a crash is coming

If you constantly predict a crash then of course you’ll sometimes be right.

The start of this blog post has a good retrospective on just a few his incorrect crash calls https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/01/05/one-of-the-great-bubbles-of-financial-history/

One of The Great Bubbles of Financial History
Posted January 5, 2021 by Michael Batnick

Jeremy Grantham is going for it. In his latest piece, Waiting For The Last Dance, he writes:

“I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.”

Yikes

Grantham is famous for calling the Japanese, tech, and housing bubbles. So when he speaks on this topic, investors pay attention. You can’t mention his prescient calls without mentioning the ones that didn’t come to fruition. It’s only fair to point out that he has been bearish for much of the recent bull market.

I include these bullet points not to dunk on Grantham, a living legend, but rather to show the full picture. If his latest piece scares the heck out of you, understand that listening to him over the last decade could have prevented you from missing out on a once in a lifetime bull market.

• 2010 – Have Cash, Wait for Stocks to Fall
• 2011 – Grantham sees most global equities as ranging from “unattractive” to “very unattractive” – valuing the S&P 500 at “no more than 950.”
• 2012-Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks
• 2013- Much of everything else is once again brutally overpriced
• 2014- Big stock bubble will end badly in 2016
• 2015- GMO founder Grantham says markets ‘ripe for major decline’ in 2016

• 02/14/2022 – Zelensky says Ukraine has been informed Feb. 16 will be day of attack? Ukraine wants Donbass and Crimea back! – “We strive for peace and want to solve all issues exclusively through negotiations. And Donbass, and Crimea will return to Ukraine. Only in a diplomatic way.”

The Hill@thehill#BREAKING: Zelensky says Ukraine has been informed Feb. 16 will be day of attack http://hill.cm/cFNi7cQ11:04 AM · Feb 14, 2022·SocialFlow

Zelensky says Ukraine has been informed Feb. 16 will be day of attack

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said that he has been informed that Russia will attack on Wednesday.

The comments from the Ukrainian leader, made in an address to his nation posted on Facebook, come amid heightened tensions between Kyiv and Moscow.

Zelensky wrote in a statement on Facebook that Ukraine will hold a Day of Unity on Wednesday. He said the relevant decree has already been signed.

He said, “We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack,” according to a Facebook translation of his comments.

• 02/14/2022 – Russia wants to control Ukraine’s oil/gas transpotation?

Neva@NLong72 Reminder

🔸Russia is the supply country

🔸Ukraine is the transport country

-By invading Ukraine—Putin and Semion Mogilevich control Europe’s natural gas

• 02/14/2022 – if the following information on Russian buildup near Ukraine is real, then Russia might be ready for attack, but aren’t sufficient to occupy the entire country?

Russian Buildup Near Ukraine Features Potent Weapons Systems, Well-Trained Troops – WSJ
The forces give Moscow the means to attack Ukraine from multiple directions but aren’t sufficient to occupy the entire country

• 02/13/2022 – True national debt, including unfunded entitlements, is at least $60 trillion – roughly three times the size of the entire US economy. Something has got to give. – debt crisis of US is coming?

Truth in Accounting: U.S. national debt closer to $123 trillion, nearly $796,000 per household

The U.S. national debt is closer to $123 trillion, more than four times what the Treasury Department is reporting, Chicago-based Truth in Accounting calculates in its new annual analysis of the nation’s finances.

The federal government has $5.95 trillion in assets and $129.06 trillion worth of bills resulting in a $123.11 trillion shortfall, or a debt burden of $796,000 per U.S. household.

Because of this massive amount of debt and repeatedly poor financial decisions made by lawmakers, TIA gave the U.S. government an “F” grade for its financial condition.

Elon Musk@elonmuskReplying to @TheBabylonBeeTrue national debt, including unfunded entitlements, is at least $60 trillion – roughly three times the size of the entire US economy. Something has got to give.

• 02/12/2022 – war could hit US chip industry. Neon prices rose 600% in the runup to Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine, since chip firms relied on a few Ukrainian companies, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

White House warns Russia could hit US chip industry
According to Techcet estimates, over 90% of US semiconductor-grade neon supplies come from Ukraine, while 35% of US palladium is sourced from Russia

WASHINGTON: The White House is warning the chip industry to diversify its supply chain in case Russia retaliates against threatened US export curbs by blocking access to key materials, people familiar with the matter said.

The potential for retaliation has garnered more attention in recent days after Techcet, a market research group, published a report on Feb 1 highlighting the reliance of many semiconductor manufacturers on Russian and Ukrainian-sourced materials like neon, palladium and others.

According to Techcet estimates, over 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon supplies come from Ukraine, while 35% of U.S. palladium is sourced from Russia.

Some chipmakers have been reviewing their supply chains to scan for potential fallout from conflict in Ukraine. One person at a chipmaking company who declined to be named acknowledged that it has been looking into its supply of neon and other gases, some of which originate in Ukraine.

“Even if there was a conflict in Ukraine it wouldn’t cut off supply. It would drive prices up,” the person said. “The market would constrict. Those gases would become pretty scarce. But it wouldn’t stop semiconductor manufacturing,” he added.

According to one power chip design startup executive, unrest in Ukraine has caused rare gas prices to increase and could cause supply issues. Fluorine is another gas that has a large supply from that part of the world and could be affected, the executive added.

William Moss, a spokesperson for Intel Corp , said the chipmaker was not anticipating any impact to neon supply.

But the issue is still concerning, because global chip supplies are tight and chip orders are only expected to pick up. Techcet estimates demand for all the materials will rise by more than 37% over the next 4 years, pointing to recent announcements by Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan’s TSMC in Ohio, Arizona and Texas.

Neon prices rose 600% in the runup to Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine, since chip firms relied on a few Ukrainian companies, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

Russia could hit U.S. chip industry, White House warns

• 02/11/2022 – developing news on Russia

1. Putin: “there will be no winners. And you (European Union) will be pulled into this conflict (Russia – Ukraine) against ur will. 𝐘𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐞𝐲𝐞 when you execute Article 5”

Full quote from Putin: I want to stress it one more time. I’ve been saying it, but I’d very much want you to finally hear me, and to deliver it to your audience, TV and online. Do you understand it or not, that if Ukraine joins NATO and attempts to bring Crimea back by military means, the European countries will be automatically pulled into a war conflict with Russia. Of course NATO and Russia potentials are incompreparable. We understand it. But we also understand that Russia is one of the leading nuclear states and by some modern components it even outperforms many. There will be no winners. And you will be pulled into this conflict against your will. You won’t even have time to blink your eye when you execute Article 5 (collective defense of NATO members). Mr President (Macron), of course, doesn’t want this, and I don’t want it… which is why he is here, torturing me for six straight hours.

1. Here’s 5 mins on why Russia and the West see NATO and Ukraine in completely different ways. From Putin’s standpoint, NATO’s expansion angered Russia significantly
2. Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK nationals told to leave Ukraine7 Books That Explain Why Russia Wants Ukraine – WSJ
3. – good to read at least one of the books

• 02/03/2022 – Why Putin cannot allow Ukraine to join NATO. And if it does – it will destroy itself. He explains.

 Listen to me very carefully, In Ukraine’s doctrine documents, it says that they intend to return the Crimea, even by military force. It’s not just lip service to the public, this is written down in their documents, Now imagine Ukraine is a NATO member. It’s well armed, and has missile systems – the way they do in Romania and Poland. And it begins an operation on Crimea. I won’t go into Donbas for now. This is Russian sovereign territory (Crimea). For us, this question is closed. Hypothetically image that Ukraine is in NATO and is beginning this operation. You want us to go to war with the NATO block? Has anyone thought this through? Any though at all? I don’t think so. And when it comes to the Minsk agreements – on the one hand we hear that the Ukraine wants to fulfill them. It us us who are blamed, that we don’t fufill them… Allow Donbass to decide for themselves. And at the same time, they publicaly say that if Ukraine does fulfill them, it will fall apart. (Donbass would secede). Have you not thought – should it create a threat for Russia of this magnitude (by joining NATO) – it creates the very same risk of falling apart, for itself. All of this requires very careful consideration.

or Putin’s video on my own computer (C:\My_document\Our_finance\My_portfolio\Annual_2022\Individual_stock_ETFs\SOXS\Putin-video.mp4)

• 02/01/2022 – Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that the West had failed to address Russia’s demands to receive legally binding security guarantees in its formal response to Moscow delivered last week. Putin accuses the United States of goading Russia into starting a conflict in Ukraine. But Putin is still willing to talk. 

1. Putin Says West Failed to Address His Demands in Ukraine Standoff – WSJRussian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that the West had failed to address Russia’s demands to receive legally binding security guarantees in its formal response to Moscow delivered last week.“Russian concerns were basically ignored,” Mr. Putin told a news conference following talks with Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban. “We didn’t see an adequate response to our key concerns,” he said, adding that by dismissing Russia’s interests, the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization were ignoring the right of states to choose a way to ensure their own security.On Tuesday, Mr. Putin repeated complaints about NATO’s presence in Poland, Romania and the Baltics, and said Moscow has significant worries about Ukraine joining the U.S.-led alliance because of its stated intentions to regain Crimea, which he claimed it would attempt militarily.“Imagine that Ukraine is a NATO country and starts these military operations. What, should we fight the NATO bloc? Has anyone thought about this? It seems as if no,” Mr. Putin said.But he stopped short of outlining what may satisfy Russia beyond its core demands—which Western countries have deemed nonstarters.“Hopefully, we will eventually find a solution—although it isn’t simple, we are aware of this,” Mr. Putin told the press conference. “But today I am not ready to talk, of course, about what it will be.”
2. Ukraine Live Updates: Putin Says the U.S. Wants to Push Russia into War
   The Russian president blamed the United States for the crisis in Ukraine, saying Americans were goading the Kremlin to start a conflict as a pretext for enacting harsh sanctions.

   Here’s what you need to know:

   1. Putin accuses the United States of goading Russia into starting a conflict in Ukraine.

   2. Top diplomats from Russia and the U.S. discuss the Ukraine crisis, but no breakthrough is reported.

   3. Ukraine’s president praises support from the West as leaders shuffle through Kyiv.

   4. See how Ukraine is training civilians to resist an attack by Russia.

   5. The U.S. orders families of its embassy staff in Belarus to leave the country.

   6. Watch: The U.S. and Russia exchange bitter accusations at the U.N. Security Council.

3. Pull back from Ukraine if you’re not going to invade, Blinken tells Russia U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in a call on Tuesday that now would be the time to pull back Russian troops from the border with Ukraine if Moscow is not intending to invade, a senior State Department official told reporters.

• 01/31/2022 – developing news on Russia. This isn’t an invasion force yet, we have seen so far was “just the first step,” and now that things like air defense assets, convoys of fuel and ammunition — and the personnel to man all of the equipment — were being moved to the border, Russia was taking its second step. “There are, I would argue, quite a few steps to go through before we actually get to Russian troops moving onto Ukrainian soil.  US is devising the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia.

1. Biden to Designate Qatar as ‘Major non-NATO Ally’ – WSJ
2. U.S., UK to punish Putin’s elite friends if Russia invades Ukraine
3. U.S., Russia Square Off Over Ukraine in U.N. Security Council Debate – WSJ
4. Russia is willing to go to war and incur sanctions over Ukraine, analysts warn

Russia is willing to risk “real financial harm” and all-out war to achieve its political objectives over Ukraine, defense analysts have said.

Moscow has denied that it plans to invade neighboring Ukraine, a former part of the Soviet Union, despite having assembled around 100,000 troops at the border.

On Sunday, Bob Menendez, chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, told CNN that lawmakers were devising the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia.

“This isn’t an invasion force yet,” he told CNBC in a phone call. “Russia has very deliberately built [this situation] in such a way that we will know when it is an invasion force.”

He added that what we have seen so far was “just the first step,” and now that things like air defense assets, convoys of fuel and ammunition — and the personnel to man all of the equipment — were being moved to the border, Russia was taking its second step.

“There are, I would argue, quite a few steps to go through before we actually get to Russian troops moving onto Ukrainian soil,” he said. “We might see standoff tactics like cruise missile test launches and cyberwarfare attacks, a bit of unrest and assassination in Ukraine, perhaps.”

• 01/31/2022 – Musk and other insiders sold historical high stocks by end of 2021 and this is his thought on market in 2022 and 2023

Elon Musk has a gloomy financial prediction for 2022

Musk’s tweet

• 01/28/2022 – developing news on Russia – “Putin has concluded that the Biden administration, which is full of the same people who mounted a feeble response to his first invasion of Ukraine back in 2014, would impose pinprick financial costs at best, certainly measures that he thinks Russia can weather,” said Marshall Billingslea, the Treasury Department’s sanctions deputy in the Trump administration and now at the Hudson Institute, a right-leaning think tank.  A big crack on Ukraine? could Ukraine back off by itself of NATO, will this be the final solution, win-win for all?– Ukraine president Mr. Zelensky said that NATO nations didn’t want Ukraine as a member, precisely because they might be dragged into a conflict to protect it. “If Ukraine is in NATO and then God forbid something evil happens, they will have to defend their member,” he said “Some European nations think along these lines and they can’t have the risk of Ukraine as a member.”

1. Putin Says U.S. Ignored His Ukraine Demands – WSJ
   Russia’s president says he will consider his response, while Ukraine tries to play down the standoff. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the U.S. and NATO had ignored his demands to hold off from any moves that he says would threaten Russian security, in his first publicly released response to Western proposals to ease the crisis over Ukraine. Mr. Putin’s remarks—released in a Kremlin readout of a conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday—focused squarely on the simmering crisis over Ukraine. He told the French leader he would “carefully study” written responses from both Washington and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on his demands that the U.S.-led security alliance bar Ukraine from ever joining and that NATO troops be rolled back from parts of Eastern Europe. Only then would he decide on what he termed “further actions.” But the Russian leader said his “fundamental concerns”—a drawdown of NATO troops and a bar on Ukraine joining the alliance—had been ignored.Ukraine president Mr. Zelensky went on to criticize the U.S. and the U.K. for evacuating their embassies, adding to what he considered an unfounded sense of alarm. “They are the last who should be leaving the ship and I don’t think we have a Titanic here,” he said.He also said that NATO nations didn’t want Ukraine as a member, precisely because they might be dragged into a conflict to protect it. “If Ukraine is in NATO and then God forbid something evil happens, they will have to defend their member,” he said “Some European nations think along these lines and they can’t have the risk of Ukraine as a member.”
2. Biden Sanctions Plan Targets Russian Banks, Companies and Imports If Ukraine Is Attacked – WSJ.  The plan, which is still being finalized, would prohibit a range of activities, While final decisions haven’t been made, the officials said, the potential targets include several of Russia’s largest government-owned banks, such as VTB Bank, the banning of all trade in new issues of Russian sovereign debt and the application of export controls across key sectors such as advanced microelectronics. Off the table, for now, are sanctions on oil and natural gas exports or disconnecting Russia from SWIFT, the basic infrastructure that facilitates financial transactions between banks across the world, said one of the officials. Russia is better prepared now, with deeper foreign currency reserves, less reliance on foreign debt, faster economic growth and rising prices for oil—the country’s primary revenue source. Russia’s role as a top exporter of oil and gas and its economic integration with Europe have previously deterred the U.S. from applying broad sanctions out of concern that they would upset global markets and European allies. “Putin has concluded that the Biden administration, which is full of the same people who mounted a feeble response to his first invasion of Ukraine back in 2014, would impose pinprick financial costs at best, certainly measures that he thinks Russia can weather,” said Marshall Billingslea, the Treasury Department’s sanctions deputy in the Trump administration and now at the Hudson Institute, a right-leaning think tank.New sanctions will “hit the most pro-Western part of the business elite and the economically Western-oriented population the most,” said Mikhail Barabanov, a fellow at the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a private Moscow think tank.“Politically, it’s not painful. It’s destructive,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this week.
3. Pentagon Warns Russia Could Seize Ukrainian Cities, While Kyiv Pleads for Calm – WSJThe Pentagon warned Friday that Russia has amassed sufficient combat power to take cities and substantial swaths of territory in Ukraine, whose leaders warned the U.S. was overstating the Russian threat.“While we don’t believe that [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin has made a final decision to use these forces against Ukraine, he clearly now has that capability,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters Friday.“If that was unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant, and result in significant amount of casualties,” Gen. Milley said. “You can imagine what that might look like in dense urban areas, along roads and so on, so forth, it would be horrific, it would be terrible, and it’s not necessary and we think a diplomatic outcome is the way to go here.”
4. Opinion | In Ukraine, Putin’s Gamble Has Failed Instead of trapping the United States, Mr. Putin has trapped himself. Caught between armed battle and a humiliating retreat, he’s now seeing his room for maneuver dwindling to nothing. He may invade and threat defeat, or he may pull again and don’t have anything to point out for his brinkmanship. What occurs subsequent is unknown. But one factor is evident: Mr. Putin’s gamble has failed.

• 01/27/2022 – developing news on Russia

1. Moscow Is Pessimistic About Reaching Accord With U.S. on Ukraine, but Talk Continues
2. Ukrainian official tells CNN Biden’s call with Ukrainian President ‘did not go well’ but White House disputes account White House says Biden promised US would ‘respond decisively’ if Russia invades, Pentagon says Russian buildup is continuing, Russia’s military buildup along the Ukrainian border has increased over the past 24 hours, the Pentagon said Thursday, while the US awaits Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to its written proposals submitted to Moscow on Wednesday. “We continue to see, including in the last 24 hours, more accumulation of credible combat forces arrayed by the Russians in, again, the western part of their country and in Belarus,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said at a press briefing. Kirby described the buildup as “not dramatic” but “also not sclerotic.”

• 01/27/2022 – great interview with Jeremy Grantham

Calling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

• 01/27/2022 – The Fed Just Opened The Floodgates On Stocks

1. There was no less-hawkish Fed at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
2. There was a more hawkish Fed that began to outline its balance sheet reduction process.
3. Now the stock market is about to pay for ignoring all the warning signs that were in plain sight.

• 12/10/2021 – be alert that companies insiders are selling stocks at historical levels

Elon Musk, Other Leaders Sell Stock at Historic Levels as Market Soars, Tax Changes Loom – WSJ
Insiders like the Waltons, Mark Zuckerberg and Google’s co-founders have sold $63.5 billion through November, up 50% from 2020

• 12/03/2021 – US needs to contain China like Soviet Union – Today’s China isn’t the Soviet Union, but the country’s formidable strengths conceal grave weaknesses. Slowing growth, political sclerosis and looming demographic catastrophe threaten the regime. The best check on autocratic aggression remains the strength and unity of the democracies. The U.S. can work with allies to slow Chinese innovation through technological denial policies that limit its access to cutting-edge semiconductors, vast troves of American data and other crucial goods. It can complicate China’s overseas expansion by highlighting the corruption, authoritarianism and local resentment that its Belt and Road Initiative often fosters in developing countries. – Is delisting Chinese companies part of containment strategy?

Containment Can Work Against China, Too – WSJ
There are important differences between Xi Jinping’s China and the Soviet Union, but the Cold War still offers clear strategic guidance for the U.S.

Today’s China isn’t the Soviet Union, but the country’s formidable strengths conceal grave weaknesses. Slowing growth, political sclerosis and looming demographic catastrophe threaten the regime. Through his belligerence, Mr. Xi has made rivals of countries near and far. His strategy, such as it is, appears to involve seeking near-term wins—subduing Taiwan and weakening U.S. alliances in the Pacific, establishing a technological sphere of influence encompassing countries around the world—to offset, and perhaps even reverse, the accumulating effects of longer-term problems.

If Washington can block those advances, then Mr. Xi’s narrative of inevitable Chinese ascent will start to look hollow. And his successors will someday have to turn inward and address, through domestic reform and diplomatic moderation, the country’s growing isolation and the clutch of economic, political and social tensions that Mr. Xi’s policies are accentuating.

The best check on autocratic aggression remains the strength and unity of the democracies. Knowing this, Mr. Xi longs to separate Washington from its friends. Any narrowly nationalistic American approach to competition will thus fail. The U.S. will need instead deeper cooperation with like-minded countries—on trade, technological innovation and defense—to build collective resilience against Chinese aggression and to generate the collective pressure that can throw Beijing on its heels for a change.

The U.S. can work with allies to slow Chinese innovation through technological denial policies that limit its access to cutting-edge semiconductors, vast troves of American data and other crucial goods. It can complicate China’s overseas expansion by highlighting the corruption, authoritarianism and local resentment that its Belt and Road Initiative often fosters in developing countries.

The most effective long-term strategies aren’t simply passive: They bait an enemy into blunders and drive up the costs that it must pay to compete.

A strategy of this nature will make for a tense, sometimes frightening struggle.

• 11/29/2021 – Tilson’s comments

If you were to tell me that the stock market will crash by 25% or more over the next year and asked me to identify the possible reasons for it, here are my top three:

a) Rising inflation and/or debt levels worldwide will roil debt markets and spook equity investors.

b) A new COVID-19 variant will emerge that is resistant to the current vaccines, leading to a surge in deaths and a return to lockdowns.

c) We will get into a shooting war with China – likely over Taiwan.

• 11/29/2021 – watch out the volatilities coming at the week ahead: Omicron, supply-chain disruptions, a lot of economic data, with reports due on consumer confidence, private-sector payrolls, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity, and initial weekly unemployment claims. Friday with the release of November employment and unemployment figures. That report, along with the issuance of the Fed’s Beige Book summation of economic conditions on Wednesday afternoon. the looming debt-ceiling negotiations on Capitol Hill (in which failure to come to an agreement would force a government shutdown)

Stock Market Today: November 29, 2021

Taking a look at the week ahead, the investment community will be keeping close tabs on COVID-19 and the Omicron variant as it spreads around the globe. The new strain may cause some problems for less-vaccinated countries in both Europe and Asia, and it remains to be seen if the current vaccines will provide enough protection against it. This comes as supply-chain disruptions and bottlenecking in international trade continues to impact global output. Investors will also soon get a lot of economic data, with reports due on consumer confidence, private-sector payrolls, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity, and initial weekly unemployment claims. The headline report will come on Friday with the release of November employment and unemployment figures. That report, along with the issuance of the Fed’s Beige Book summation of economic conditions on Wednesday afternoon, will be closely watched by monetary policy decision-makers ahead of next month’s FOMC meeting.

The Fed’s stance on monetary policy, the looming debt-ceiling negotiations on Capitol Hill (in which failure to come to an agreement would force a government shutdown), inflation concerns and related supply-chain disruptions, and the renewed fear of the COVID-19 Omicron variant are together forming a “wall of worry” for Wall Street, and this uncertainty may lead to a near-term spike in equity market volatility. Given this backdrop, investors may be best served by adding some quality names to their portfolios, which, as noted above, can be found among the issues ranked 1 and 2 for Safety by Value Line. The company’s stock-screening capabilities can make the potentially daunting task of identifying these stocks quite easy. For example, the mega-cap technology names offer the best combination of high-growth potential and safety, which also made them popular holdings at the height of the coronavirus pandemic last year.

• 11/27/2021 –

Investors’ terrible timing

Margin Debt and the Market: Up 3.6% in October

Margin Statistics

• 11/26/2021 – Each “Crisis” Has Been A Buying Opportunity

“Davidson” submits:

Every market has multiple events deemed a ‘pending crisis’ which results in panics some longer and some shorter. One rule has held over many cycles and that has been, ‘Buy on every ‘crisis’ if the market reflects strong liquidity.”

Buy on every ‘crisis’ if the market reflects strong liquidity.

Liquidity and market psychology are highly correlated. If investors have adequate liquidity, then they do not panic when an earthshaking event hits the headlines as the new COVID strain has done today. The T-Bill 10yr Treasury rate spread is a combined proxy for liquidity and market psychology. It provides a measure for how far investors have ‘gotten over their skis’ in Wall Street parlance. Investors always panic on unexpected negative news and reassess market exposures vs the newly defined risk. Some will pare back positions on the first headline, while others will wait to be better informed as more detailed information emerges. Investor responses are dependent on how much one feels exposed to price declines. If one has adequate liquidity and market experience, one tends to ride out every new negative as something that can be worked through if a general economic expansion appears unthreatened. Those with the least experience tend to panic and sell positions precisely because they have been the least cautious at being prepared for unexpected negatives that more experienced investors have built into their strategies. It is the same every cycle.

The current T-Bill 10yr Treas rate spread is ~1.5-1.6% and has been widening since we exited the COVIS lockdown. Every important economic indicator, retail sales, employment and so on across every economic parameter reflects economic expansion. While a new COVID strain is to be expected, we have already had some 3,000 variants which is typical for a virus, it only becomes a “Black Swan” if investors are unable to deal with short term liquidity that arises from being overly committed to longer-term strategies with borrowed funds i.e., margin. This all-in investment position is reflected when the rate spread falls to 0.2% on rising T-Bill rates as investors commit all their capital including rainy day capital for higher returns. The history of this measure indicates ample liquidity exists to deal with today’s negative headline.

Today is a buying opportunity in my opinion within a strong economic expansion period.

• 11/02/2021 – Tilson still thinks “the mother of all economic booms” is still underway. Scott Grannis also thinks future economic growth will be at least decent

from Tilson’s daily

My friend David Berman of Durban Capital organized a birthday lunch for me yesterday. My colleague Berna Barshay and four other friends from the investment world joined us, so naturally, we talked about stocks.

My main takeaway from the conversation is that what I’ve been calling “the mother of all economic booms” is still underway.

In summary, while I tend to avoid making market forecasts, I think the odds are good that stocks will be up between now and the end of the year.

But the point remains (and is equally true today… I think): Just because things are getting foolish in the markets (or particular sectors) doesn’t mean they can’t get a lot more foolish…

Miscellaneous chart updates

Here are a few updated charts that track important information:

Today saw the release of September capital goods orders (Chart #1). Once again they were pretty strong. Capex (shorthand) is important because it is business investment in things that will enhance worker productivity in the future. This is therefore a good sign that future economic growth will be at least decent.

• 10/12/2021 – the three top possible risks on market from Tilson: In fact, I’d estimate that there’s only a 10% chance that the market declines more than 25% from today’s level at any point over the next 12 months, and there’s a less than 3% chance of a 50% decline. But the odds aren’t zero either…

Three reasons the market might crash in the next year; ‘Starting a Fire’: U.S. and China Enter Dangerous Territory Over Taiwan;

1) If you were to tell me that the stock market will crash by 25% or more over the next year and asked me to identify the possible reasons for it, here are my top three:

a) Rising inflation and/or debt levels across the world will roil debt markets and spook equity investors,

b) A new COVID-19 variant will emerge that is resistant to the current vaccines, leading to a surge in deaths and a return to lockdowns, or

c) We will get into a shooting war with China – likely over Taiwan.

(Other possibilities not in my top three include an economic crash in China, a collapse of the cryptocurrency sector (whose market cap now exceeds $2.3 trillion), and a terrorist using a nuclear or biological weapon in a major city.)

To be clear, I don’t think a market crash due to these – or any other – scenarios is likely.

In fact, I’d estimate that there’s only a 10% chance that the market declines more than 25% from today’s level at any point over the next 12 months, and there’s a less than 3% chance of a 50% decline.

But the odds aren’t zero either…

• 10/03/2021 – really worth reading and prepare for it

The Volatility Squeeze
The next great short squeeze has begun; it will crash the market