Study of Bison’s research

Posted on March 2, 2023 by Timeless Investor

Study of Bison’s research

  • 03/08/2023 – recommended by Josh Young

Kuppy (Hedge Fund Mgr): Oil & Energy Will Outperform Gold Next Few Yrs? CPI Back Over 10% in 2024?

  • 03/03/3023 – Podcast of Josh Young

Josh Young: Energy Value Chain Analysis (Offshore & Onshore)

[0:00] Introduction and book recommendations.

[8:00] The onshore space

[18:00] How to approach the onshore value chain ($VTLE, $DVN)

[33:00] Common Mistakes naive investors make.

[36:00] Drilled but Uncompleted (DUC) Wells

[44:00] The Offshore Space

[1:02:00] Portfolio Management: Position Sizing

[1:07:00] Hurdle Rates

[1:17:00] A day in the life with Josh Young

[1:21:00] Closing Question and More From Josh Young

This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company, also known as MITIMCo, the investment office of MIT. Each year, MITIMCo invests in a handful of new emerging managers who it believes can earn exceptional long-term returns to support MIT’s mission. To help the emerging manager community more broadly, they created emergingmanagers.org, a website for emerging manager stockpickers.

  • 02/26/2023 – Podcast of Josh Young

100% Returns, Value Traps & Why Profits Are Made on the Buy

We discussed starting an energy fund, outperforming benchmarks, dividends vs. buybacks, value traps, how to value an energy company, good prices vs. good assets, the dangers of diversification, the outlook for natural gas & the relevance of OPEC.

  1. when buy individual oil company, be careful not to buy the one which can go bankrupt
  2. natural gas is oversupplied this year
  3. how to value an energy company – not constraint in only free cash flow yield since it can be changed very fast given the volatility of oil price. look at valuation matrix and growth prospective
  4. final advice on energy stock investment – be fearful when others are greedy, by greedy when others are fearful
  • 02/25/2023 – Ep 01 – The Journey of $JOY a Conversation w/ Alex Verge

 

  • 01/26/2023 – Bison’s thesis on VTLE

VTLE_bison_presentation

https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/josh-young-from-bison-investments?sd=pf

  • 10/06/2022 –

  • 09/15/2022 –

Lead-Lag Live: Animal Farm

  • 09/10/2022 – great comments from Josh

Josh Young: Oil & Natural Gas Drilling Costs Still Rising, Higher Supply Costs Going Forward

  1. OPEC+ will cut production mainly due to no more spare capacity, nothing else
  2. global economic recession might drag down oil stocks and oil price significantly, might have no more $140
  3. Russian oil will not be out of the world market significantly, do not account for it
  4. China reopen is one of the biggest factors for oil price
  5. the cost is about 20% higher for oil industry
  • 09/07/2022 – retweeted by Josh

  1. volatility as opportunity, portfolio management not looking for risk management, but best return, and valuation matters most
  2. my company Bison lives with volatility. make decision on data driven, and mid- long term goals. Not for the short term. Avoid FOMO thoughts
  3. Josh is the biggest investor in Bison, try to look for opponent to prevent confirmation bias. Always invert
  4. focus on small o/g companies so far. Prefer larger companies if same cheap valuation as that of small companies
  5. Canadian oil stocks better than us stocks so far due to currency devaluation
  6. xop (mid-cap o/g stocks) for benchmark
  7. biggest risk is China, reopen or not, when to reopen. 1 ~3 millions b/d difference
  • 08/27/2022 – Josh on crude oil supply and Powell speech

Crude Oil Supply: The Week Ahead – 29 Aug 2022

  1. crude oil supply: Saudi/UAE cuts vs spr
    1. UAE’s cut is very critical since only UAE and Saudi have spare capacity
    2. they cannot run at max capacity for months, otherwise, they will kill the wells
    3. however, given the relationship of US and Saudi, they have to wait for a few catalysts, such as recession on oil demand destruction, and Iran deal, in order to justify their production cut
    4. Iran deal cannot provide more oil
    5. spr cannot last too long, there will be an end
    6. be aware of the big divergency between cruid oil price and oil equity price for the last one a a half month – Oil downed significantly, oil equity price slowly comes back
    7. oil price might trip by the end of the year, coincident with China stimulus and reopen?
  2. Jackson Hole Drama
  3. China Stimulus (finally?)
    1. early next year?
  4. What’s ahead for next week?
    1. look for more oil demand data
    2. market upticks again?
  • 08/25/2022 – on inflation

24Aug2022-Inflation-student-loan-ong-Josh-Young – Twitter space meeting

  1. inflation will become long term issue
  2. EU will burn oil for gas in the winter time, bullish oil. Bison is writing a white paper on this
  3. China bought commodities at all cost in Oct 2021, caused the price spike in the end of 2021, this single hands the bullish oil. We think it might happen again near the end of this year
  • 08/12/2022 –

Why Buffett is Buying Oil Companies w/ Josh Young (TIP468)

My guest today is oil and gas expert Josh Young. Josh is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests, which focuses on investing strictly in oil and gas, which has become very contrarian over the last few years. We had Josh on the show in Q1 and were blown away with the extent of his knowledge, which is very useful at the moment as oil swings from decade highs to average lows. A lot has been happening in the oil and gas markets so we spend the first half of the discussion catching up on Q2 headlines and spend the back half of the show discussing Buffett’s recent massive investments in both Chevron and Occidental.  IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

books recommended by Josh – Crude Volatility

  1. 00:00:00 – Intro
  2. 00:01:44 – Why the price of oil has been experiencing 30% swings in Q2
  3. 00:06:44 – How the war between Russia and Ukraine has been affecting the oil and gas markets
  4. 00:23:32 – How interest rates continuing to climb could affect the supply and demand of oil
  5. 00:28:04 – Recession risks for oil and why some smaller producers are experiencing very low valuation multiples
  6. 00:48:36 – Why Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has now invested $26B into Chevron and $13B into Occidental and shows no sign of slowing down
  7. 00:51:55 – How retail investors can think about investing like Buffett with a much smaller portfolio
  8. 01:04:47 – A forecast for airline stocks

Oil Prices Explained: What makes them volatile?

  • 07/31/2022 –

Josh Young – Founder & CIO @ Bison Interests – A Bull Case for Oil & Gas 40:21

First Half 2022 MicroCap Bloodbath with Jason Hirschman, Yaron Naymark and Josh Young

  • 06/17/2022 – Josh on Radio

Chase Taylor and John Young
Know Your Risk Radio with Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer, Bulwark Capital Management

  1. oil market is much tighter than the nat gas
  2. windfall tax will hurt the production of oil
  3. less regulation, more investment into oil industry will be better to recommend to Biden admin
  4. the increase of numbers of rigs just to make up the depletion of wells
  5. Josh stays on his long term view of OnG
  • 06/15/2022 – Josh on Bloomberg BI

  • 06/02/2022 – Josh on OPEC+ announced it will increase production. In addition, Josh recommends Baytec, JOY and BSM (Blackstone Minerals) for good portfolio

OPEC+ doesn’t have much spare capacity left: Bison Interests on youtube

OPEC+ announced it will increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in both July and August. Josh Young, CIO, Bison Interests, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss why he is skeptical of the cartel meeting its quota and why he sees more upside in energy stocks going forward. His top picks are Baytex, Journey and Black Stone Minerals.

  1. we noticed early on was that these countries weren’t producing as much as they said they would we did some analysis and realize that they were unlikely to they were unlikely to be able to actually meet their quotas fully and subsequently
  2. I think they still remember how painful it was to get into a price war in early 2020 where the results of that was actually a oil going negative and so I think they’d want to have a good framework and the reality is that these countries are all running out of spare capacity including Saudi Arabia and UAE and as they as they come to the end of this agreement by the end of this year it seems likely Adele have the full amount of production
  3. US President Joe Biden potentially visiting Saudi Arabia this month at you know if that happens what do you think would come out of that I think I think Biden and other world leaders have been operating under a set of misconceptions around the energy industry and how these things actually work versus kind of what they hope and expect and so I think there’s this understanding that’s incorrect that Saudi Arabia has been holding a lot of oil they could be producing and exporting and the reality is that they actually don’t have that much capacity left and to the extent that they did accelerate their production today that might come at the cost of a reduced ability to produce as much as they’re hoping to tomorrow so far
  4. Josh recommends Baytec, JOY and BSM (Blackstone Minerals)
  • 06/02/2022 – Josh on OPEC, oil, minerals and royalties (Twitter space) -esp talk about small investment in offshore companies – this is my question too, e.g. RIG

at 25:00 talk about small investment in offshore companies. this is about sequence and timing. Cons – still not that profitable, lots of debt; pros- debt will be reduced significantly, more torque on oil price, better to be ahead of the game before the equity price increases too much

  • 05/24/2022 – Josh on Stagflation, SPR release, oil and gas
  1. agree with Brigewater’s long term view of stagflation
  2. market might be bottomed since everyone is negative on it: I think it’s interesting we’re seeing kind of people get extremely bearish on the market and you know I have some puts on which I think I’ve talked about repeatedly before and haven’t got insurance almost feel like I’m over in shirt and I’ve just been seeing extreme negative sentiment across a number of friends that is not to say that the market will crash. To say that things won’t get worse but generally when almost everyone has faced -11 in the short run that’s a pretty good indicator that things make it better
  3. lots of people and funds are still bearish on oil and gas. Henry hub
  4. gas price is very volatile in the short term, cannot predict it in the short term
  5. I like equities when most people hate without any economic reasons
  6. I like Oklahoma drillers because there was a sort of very painful boom bust sizeStaying strong and then the stupid stock didn’t end up working as well and I guess that plus like previous blow ups and I should say that it feels like there is there’s been kind of more booms and busts. In addition, they already have infrastructure ready. the cost is significant high if somebody starts from scrach
  7. real Capital discipline or is it or is it supply chain constraint for ong companies
  8. the supply chain problem might be solved in 2023 or 2024, not sure. However, it cause the difficulty for oil production to increase. Rig counts increase very slow.

The US is on the cusp of stagflation and markets are yet to fully realize, hedge fund giant Bridgewater says

Image

the best ways against inflation is oil and REITs in 1971 ~1981

 

  • 05/03/2022 – Josh’s talk on Baytex

Josh Young – Baytex Energy: The Business of Oil & Gas
Josh Young is the CIO of Bison Interests. We cover the mechanics behind the production of a barrel of shale, how producers like Baytex fit into the broader energy ecosystem, and how management approaches issues like hedging, debt reduction and returning capital to shareholders.

  • 04/22/2022 – Risk Radio talk from Josh

podcast website (Josh Young with Zach Abraham on Know your risk radio)

April 23, 2022Know Your Risk Radio with Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer, Bulwark Capital Management

  • 04/21/2022 – Oil, gas and Telsa (Josh’s Twitter Space)
  1. 0:00 Tesla, very impressive on lower cost with current commodity price increase, notice increase car price. great car, impressive AI, hard to value the AI. Could be overvalued, the true value might be $100
  2. 27:00 inflation – rapid inflation, if not hyper-inflation. in 1970’s, inflation was last for a decade, not sure about now. People can tolerate inflation at present because of asset growth?
  3. 30:00 oil consumption – increase consumption, might last for a decade. The current ESG movement will enhance this need. Even Elon Musk advocate to increase oil production. alternative energy cannot replace oil. While it reduce the supply side of oil, so it is bullish for oil?
  • 04/20/2022 – Oil services market tightness (Josh’s Twitter Space)
  1. the price of gas is very hard to predict
  2. small oi production companies are easier to ramp their production and revenue than the larger companies because one extra rig can increase their output in larger proportion
  3. lots of EIA reports are short sighted and are wrong, I need to discount them
  4. I try to discount short term stuff that’s biased and that’s somewhat unreliable and heavily weight aggregations of that sort of short term information where it starts to become more meaningful signal as well as focusing on sort of medium and longer term effects that. In aggregate, can end up having a real impact even on the short term.
  5. there’s a lot of bad information about what’s happening in Russia and Ukraine, and it’s been very politicized. And so I’ve mostly just other than headlines, which I’ll share if I think they’re relevant for oil. I’m generally deemphasized. A lot of that in my analysis and I’ve just assumed that Russian oil production will continue more or less uninterrupted. But I think there’s a good chance that overtime Russian production will be lower even if the export is uninterrupted. Just given what’s happening from a services perspective and conversations last night as well as many conversations over the last month plus. Are indicative that that there are real issues with Russia’s current oilfield services situation and ability to develop out fields that people are expecting, and so I think I heard someone talking about this yesterday somewhere where they were basically saying instead of Russia growing 2,000,000 barrels a day over the next few years. Maybe they shrink by 2,000,000 barrels a day and again excluding all the political stuff just purely based on the service intensity today and the service capability
    And their decline rate. It does look fairly likely that Russia produces a couple million barrels a day, less over the next two or three years.
  • 04/08/2022 – discussion on $200 Oil and the Structural Energy Supply Problem

About Timeless Investor

My name is Samual Lau. I am a long-term value investor and a zealous disciple of Ben Graham. And I am a MBA graduated in May 2010 from Carnegie Mellon University. My concentrations are Finance, Strategy and Marketing.
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